Results of bets recommended

Details of bets

October 1st 2003

3pts Lazio / West Ham      @      2.23      Scandic
                                                 2.21      Canbet
                                                 2.17      UK Betting

Lazio v Sparta Prague
These teams had contrasting fortunes in the first round of Champions League game. Sparta never really looked like scoring against Chelsea, and eventually lost to a late goal. Away from home they look like being out of their depth at this level. Away from home in recent seasons, they have struggled in European competitions. Lazio have made a good start to the season, and look like a good team. They will be eager to win this one to put them in a very good position to qualify. It is hard to see Sparta scoring here, so their best hope seems to be a 0-0. That looks an unlikely outcome.

West Ham v Crystal Palace
A quick look around some Crystal Palace fans' forums, shows that the majority of Crystal Palace fans expect to lose this game. Their team gives them every reason to expect this. Whenever they have played a decent team lately, they usually have lost. Against Norwich, they were extremely lucky to only lose 2-1. West Ham have been playing quite well, and will be keen to make up for drawing with Millwall in their last home game. Crystal Palace have a couple of decent strikers, but will struggle in defense and midfield. West Ham should control the game in midfield, and their strikers should get a fair few chances. The odds on offer are generous given Palace's poor run.

Summary: A slightly smaller stake than usual, given that West Ham have a couple of injury doubts. If they are at full-strength, a bigger bet could be a good idea. Both teams should win here, against inferior opposition.

October 4th 2003

5pts Inverness CT @ 1.75 Scandic
1.73 UK Betting, Totalbet

Inverness CT v Raith
It is hard to work out why Inverness are at such high odds to win this one. They beat Raith 4-0 away from home a couple of weeks ago, in the Challenge Cup, and in all, have won their last 4 games without conceding a goal. Raith, last week, managed to lose 7-1 at home to Ross County. Add to this that they have some injury problems here, and it is hard to see them not losing. Inverness also had a superb record against Raith last season. Raith have done unusually well away from home in the league, but that won't continue over the course of the season.

4pts Wycombe-Plymouth Over 2 goals / Stirling Albion to win @ 2.65 Stan James

Wycombe v Plymouth
Both teams this season have featured in many high-scoring games. Wycombe have had a lot of home games lately with over 2 goals, while Plymouth have had a lot of away games with over 2 goals. Wycombe can't defend very well, but do score a few, while Plymouth score quite a lot and concede quite a lot, especially away from home. Plymouth seem sure to approach this game in an attacking way, which makes it likely to have a few goals.

Stirling Albion v Elgin
Stirling's recent form has been superb, as they have moved to the top of the league. They have only conceded 3 goals all season, and have looked very good. Elgin meanwhile have conceded 11 goals in their last 3 league games, with 24 conceded in 8 games overall. A team that concedes so many goals is sure to struggle against a team that defends well and scores a few themselves. Elgin were well beaten at home last week by an average Cowdenbeath team, so are not playing particularly well. They may score in this game, but they will probably concede at least 3 if their form this season continues.

2.75pts Northampton-Hull 0 or 1 goals @ 3.50 Stan James

2.5pts Northampton-Hull Exactly 2 goals @ 3.75 Stan James

Northampton v Hull
Only one of Hull's away games this season has had more than 2 goals in it, an early 2-1 defeat at Oxford. Northampton have yet to have a home game with more than 2 goals in it this season. In fact, they have had only one with 2 goals. There have been four 1-0 games and a 0-0. Northampton's best striker Martin Smith is still absent also. Last season, Hull finished with the majority of their games being low-scoring. This promises to be a close game, as both teams have a fair few good players. Northampton try to keep it close at home, and Hull aren't likely to take too many risks. It all adds up to not many goals being scored.

0.25pts Wycombe-Plymouth Over 2 goals / Northampton-Hull 0 or 1 goals / Inverness CT / Stirling Albion @ 15.45 Stan James

0.25pts Wycombe-Plymouth Over 2 goals / Northampton-Hull Exactly 2 goals / Inverness CT / Stirling Albion @ 16.55 Stan James

Summary: We have taken 2 teams to win and 2 Over/Under bets. Once again, to place a bet on Under on an English lower division game, we had to combine Stan James' 0 or 1 goal and Exactly 2 goals bets. Those bets equate to an Under 2.5 goals bet at odds of about 1.80, which is a fair price. All of the bets look very solid this week, so a couple of small stakes accumulators combining all of the bets may pay off. Other bets we were close to taking include Torquay to win and Leeds-Blackburn Over, but we didn't quite have the confidence in them to recommend them, although they may still win.

October 11th 2003

2.5pts      Luton / Oldham to win      @      3.89      Skybet
                                                              3.83      Paddy Power
                                                              3.76      William Hill

1.5pts      Luton / Oldham-Port Vale Draw      @      5.67      Tote Bet Xpress
                                                                           5.53      Skybet
                                                                           5.49      Blue Square

Luton v Wycombe
Wycombe are still to be opposed at the moment. They sacked Sanchez as manager before the last game, and did improve slightly against Plymouth, but Luton, despite missing a couple of players, should be far too good. Their recent form is very good, and they have been playing well in most games. Wycombe have got a few draws recently, but this is more a result of luck than good play. Luton have the ability to score a lot, so should be able to win this.

Oldham v Port Vale
Oldham's recent form is excellent, and they have a number of key players to return from injury here. Port Vale are doing well, but mostly based on their home form. Away from home they have been vulnerable, and also have key striker Brooker absent here. It is hard to see Oldham losing this one given their recent good play. They are always hard to beat, and have every chance to win this one.

Summary: Not much to bet on this weekend, but this double on Luton and Oldham not to lose, seems fair. Weighting the stakes slightly in favour of Oldham to win is the way to go. Please remember that the Oldham game kicks off early. The international games seem hard to call so perhaps it is best to keep away from those games.

October 12th 2003

5pts Hull      @      1.29      Bet365
                            1.28      Centrebet
                            1.25      Premierbet

Hull v Carlisle
Hull have won every home game, apart from one draw, while Carlisle have only picked up one draw away from home. Hull's recent form is superb, with recent 5-1 and 6-1 wins. For this game, key defender Thelwell should return also. Carlisle have only 5 points this season and look like really struggling all season. They have appointed Paul Simpson as manager now, who managed to turn Rochdale from a good team into a poor one last season. Everything here points to a Hull victory. Even with a weaker team, they beat Carlisle 4-0 and 5-1 last season.

Summary: Not the most daring of bets, but one that should safely win. Other bets considered here were Hull to score 3 or more @ 2.375 (Bet365) and Allsopp to score any time @ 2.10 (Bet365). Also with Bet365, the Hull HT/FT is 1.73. All of those bets could win, but the odds on offer each time weren't quite high enough. Anyone wanting to risk a bit more could take one of these bets. It would be no surprise to see a 3-0 or 4-0 win here.

October 15th 2003

4pts Liverpool / Coventry @ 1.85 Blue Square, Bet365
1.83 Ladbrokes

Liverpool v Olimpija
The odds for this one are very short, but this game really does seem a formality. After watching the whole of the first leg, it is clear that Olimpija are a very poor team, with a lot of their players lacking in basic skills, such as having a reasonable first touch. If Liverpool had shown any ambition to win the game, they would surely have done so. As it is, they can't risk playing for a 0-0 here, after drawing 1-1. Liverpool should be close to full strength, and should win easily against a team way out of their depth.

Coventry v Wimbledon
Apart from a draw against 10-man Burnley, Wimbledon have lost every game since the opening day of the season, including all of their away games. The odds on Coventry are higher than expected, as they have been playing well lately, even if not always getting the results they deserve. Coventry have several pretty good attacking players who should take advantage of Wimbledon's defensive weaknesses. If Coventry can defend reasonably, they should win this one against a struggling team. Coventry have won 3 out of 4 games between these teams over the past 2 seasons.

Summary: A pretty solid looking double on two teams playing inferior opposition at home. A few other bets were considered, such as Southampton on the Asian, and Over 2.5 goals in the Blackburn and Manchester City games. However, the odds, especially for the Overs, just aren't high enough.

October 18th 2003

5pts Portsmouth-Liverpool Over 2.5 goals @ 1.90 Bet365
1.80 Premierbet, Canbet

Portsmouth v Liverpool
These 2 teams look likely to have a high-scoring game here. Portsmouth's home games and Liverpool's away games both finished Over approximately just under two thirds of the time last season. So far this season, all of Portsmouth's home games and all but one of Liverpool's away games have finished Over. Despite the absence of Owen, Liverpool are still playing an attacking style, and should both score and concede more than last season. The odds on offer at Bet365 are higher than the other main bookmakers here, so this is a bet not to be missed. Portsmouth attack better than they defend, so everything looks to be in favour of there being at least three goals.

3pts Wigan to keep a clean sheet @ 1.91 Bet365

Wigan v Gillingham
Wigan have only conceded 3 goals at home this season, and regularly win 1-0. The Under was considered in this one, but the odds on Wigan not to concede are better. Gillingham haven't been playing that well recently, and will probably find it pretty tough in this one. They have scored 6 goals away from home this season, but Wigan play more defensively at home than most teams. Gillingham could score, but the odds on them not to represent pretty good value.

5pts Ipswich / West Ham @ 2.41 William Hill, Stan James, Tote Bet Xpress

Ipswich v Stoke
Stoke will be missing Hall and Eustace from this game suspended, and look likely to struggle. They haven't played well in recent away games, and could've lost far more heavily than 2-1 against Wigan in midweek. Ipswich have looked a different team since Mahon, Bart-Williams and Kuqi signed on loan. The difference between these teams is huge in midfield, especially after Ipswich signed these players. Stoke will find it very hard and will have a lot of defending to do. Nothing in their recent performances indicate that they will be able to play well enough to avoid defeat.

West Ham v Burnley
West Ham will have Connolly and Defoe back from suspension for this game, which will greatly increase their chances of scoring. This is bad news for Burnley, who lost 6-1 at Ipswich in midweek. Burnley have overcome their mini flu epidemic, but are still a bit short on players, with their best defender May ruled out. West Ham have also welcomed Carrick back to fitness recently, so they will be close to full strength for this game. Burnley tend to concede a lot of goals away from home, while West Ham rarely concede goals at home. It is hard to see Burnley keeping West Ham at bay in this game, while scoring themselves won't be easy. If West Ham don't do anything stupid defensively, they will surely win.

4pts Yeovil / Peterhead @ 2.79 Canbet
2.78 UK Betting, Totalbet

Yeovil v Darlington
A closer look at Darlington's results reveals that most of their points have been accumulated against the weaker teams in Division Three. They are starting to slip down the league as they begin to play some better teams. Darlington have lost the majority of their away games, and look likely struggling on their travels all season. Last week they were beaten heavily at home, so morale probably isn't too high. As for Yeovil, despite the odd defeat recently, they have been doing well, and winning most of their games. They are clearly a better team than Darlington, so should win here.

Peterhead v Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath are currently unbeaten away from home in the league, but haven't had too many testing games. Peterhead are strong at home, and it is hard not to take them at such high odds at home. They have had a couple of poor results lately, but should be far too good for Cowdenbeath. Peterhead will be challenging for promotion this season, while Cowdenbeath probably will not. So, with Peterhead being at home, this is a bet not to miss.

1pt Ipswich / West Ham / Yeovil / Peterhead @ 6.53 UK Betting, Totalbet
6.49 Tote Bet Xpress

0.25pts        Ipswich / West Ham / Yeovil / Dundee / Stirling / Peterhead / Stranraer                                                                        @    31.26    Canbet
                                                                              30.03    Tote Bet Xpress
                                                                              29.35    Stanleybet

Dundee v Partick
Dundee have performed well lately, despite going out of the UEFA Cup in midweek. It is possible that may affect them here, but with Partick only picking up 2 points this season, Dundee should win anyway. Dundee have pushed both Rangers and Celtic very close indeed in recent league games, and have performed well against the other teams too. The odds on them winning appear a little too generous.

Montrose v Stirling
Stirling have won their last 8 league games, including a comfortable home win over Montrose only last week. Montrose look set for another season of struggle, and are not doing very well at home. They did beat Stirling in a cup competition at home early in the season, but since then the teams' fortunes have moved in opposite directions. Later in the season, the odds on this game, between two teams in similar positions, would be much lower, so it is good to take advantage now.

Stranraer v Queen's Park
Since the shock win at Inverness, Queen's Park haven't really performed well at all. In contrast, Stranraer have won their last 5 league games. Queen's Park don't look much better than last season, and look destined for the bottom 3 or 4. Stranraer were a Second Division team last season, and look like they might return there. They have been hard to beat all season, and are playing well at home at the moment. Stranraer should win this one, given that they are at home.

Summary: All of the bets advised look good, but the reason for only taking Dundee, Stirling and Stranraer in the small accumulator is that small doubts exist over these teams. Dundee may be affected by their UEFA Cup defeat, Stirling have lost at Montrose this season and Queen's Park can pull off a shock result from time to time. Still all 3 should win, but no great amount of money should be risked on them. All of the other bets should win as explained above. Other bets considered for Saturday were several Over/ Under : West Brom Under, Blackpool Over, Wrexham Under, Cheltenham Over and Lincoln Under. All of these weren't taken for various reasons. Also Swansea to win and Mansfield not to lose were considered, but again there was sufficient doubt not to take them.

October 21st 2003

5pts Hoggard - Top England bowler in first innings of First Test Match @ 3.00 Bet365

Bangladesh v England (Test match cricket)
While England should win this game, they make no appeal at the odds on offer. A closer look at their warm-up matches and recent test matches however, reveals a good value bet. England are debating on whether to start with one or two spinners. That leaves Hoggard certain to play, with Harmison and/or Johnson as the only other quick bowlers, unless they opt for Saggers, which seems unlikely. Hoggard has performed very well in the warm-up games, and when his confidence is high, he bowls well. Certainly without Caddick in the team, he is England's best bowler by some distance. Pitches on the sub-continent tend to turn, but neither Giles or Batty can be classed as match-winning spinners. Bangladesh could push England close in this game, but whatever the outcome of their first innings, I'd expect to see Hoggard finish with the most wickets. Johnson is the only danger as Harmison lacks accuracy. Regardless of anything else, Hoggard has a better than 1 in 3 chance of finishing as leading wicket taker, so this is a bet to take.

2pts Dent - Stockholm Open Outright @ 8.00 Skybet

Stockholm Open outright
Looking at the draw here, it appears that Taylor Dent has a fair chance of progressing pretty far. He plays Schalken in the first round, with Schalken actually being the seeded player. Dent however has a 3-0 record against him, with very good recent form also. When looking at the odds, Dent appears to be over-priced. Some of the better players in this tournament are in the other half of the draw. A win in the first round, which won't be easy, will see Dent's odds tumble. It may be that it could be good to lay Dent later in the tournament to guarentee profit. We will see how the first couple of rounds go, but there is no doubt that Dent is a good bet.

Summary: Please bear in mind that the cricket Test Match starts in the early hours of Tuesday morning (British time). If Bangladesh were to bat first, the bet would close at this point. If England bat first, it is likely that you will be able to place it up until the early hours of Wednesday. In the event of more than one bowler finishing with the same number of wickets, the one conceding fewer runs is deemed the winner. Hoggard represents excellent value at the odds on offer at Bet365,who are the only bookmaker offering this market. Dent's first round match in Stockholm is on Tuesday, so bets must be placed before then. Skybet seem one of the few bookmakers still be offering outright odds, as the tournament has already started.

5pts Tranmere-Swindon Over 2.5 goals @ 1.75 Canbet
1.67 Stan James

Tranmere v Swindon
Both teams here have had a lot of trouble keeping clean sheets, while being able to score a few themselves. The odds on offer at Canbet represent a fair price given that most of both teams' recent games have finished Over.

5pts    Norwich / West Brom    @    2.21    Scandic
                                                    2.19    Centrebet
                                                    2.14    Bet365

Norwich v Derby
Norwich look likely to have both Huckerby and Crouch back after they were both out of the starting line-up at the weekend. Derby look to be short on strikers themselves, and are on very poor form, after losing 3-0 at Crewe. Their other recent performances are poor, even when they have been lucky enough to avoid defeat. Norwich have won all 5 home games so far, and will be glad to be playing at home again after a few difficult away games recently. Norwich are good defensively, and should be able to score enough goals to win this one.

West Brom v Wimbledon
This one looks obvious, but the odds are still good enough to take. This is possibly the best team in Division One against the worst. Wimbledon have lost all of their away games, and are missing a few first choice players for this one. West Brom are the worst team that they could be playing, as they defend well and are hard to play against. After losing 6-0 at Nottingham Forest at the weekend, it is hard to see Wimbledon avoiding defeat.

2.6pts York-Oxford 0 or 1 goals @ 3.60 Stan James
2.4pts York-Oxford Exactly 2 goals @ 3.75 Stan James

York v Oxford
Oxford always adopt a cautious approach away from home, and are more than happy to win 1-0. York also tend to be low-scoring at home. Despite Oxford's big away win at the weekend, it should be business as usual here. York have a decent defence, and do not concede many. It should be close and low-scoring. Both games between these teams had less than 3 goals last season.

3.5pts Doncaster / Torquay-Mansfield Over 2 goals @ 3.00 Stan James

Doncaster v Rochdale
Doncaster are on superb form, winning a lot recently, often against the better teams in the division. Rochdale have been a bit up and down, but have lost twice at Carlisle, which is not a good sign. Doncaster have been scoring plenty of goals, and look to be very confident. Rochdale have tended to lose this season against the better teams in Division Three, and will find this game very tough.

Torquay v Mansfield
The vast majority of Torquay's home games have been high-scoring, while Mansfield's games always seem to feature several goals. Torquay's first-choice goalkeeper is also likely to be missing here. Mansfield have had 53 goals in their 14 games so far, so the chances of their being at least 3 here are good.

Summary: A combination on teams to win and total goals bets. All look pretty good, with decent odds on offer. The only other one seriously considered was Wigan-Sheff Utd Under, but Sheffield United tend to be more high-scoring than low.

October 22nd 2003

4pts Ajax-Celta Vigo Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85 Premierbet
1.80 Canbet

Ajax v Celta Vigo
Ajax are regularly involved in low-scoring games in the Champions League, and this looks like being another. Both teams will be very eager not to lose this one given the current group situation. Celta are more cautious away from home in domestic football, and look like continuing that in Europe. Ajax do well in the Champions League by defending well and making themselves hard to beat. The odds on offer from Premierbet here are generous.

0.5pts Ajax-Celta Vigo Under 2.5 goals / Manchester United / Plymouth @ 11.951 Premierbet

0.5pts Ajax-Celta Vigo Under 2.5 goals / Manchester United / Sheffield Wednesday-Plymouth to draw @ 11.42 Premierbet

Rangers v Manchester United
Manchester United never fail to make the later stages of the Champions League. After their defeat in Stuttgart, they will be doubly eager to do well in this game. Rangers simply do not have the players to match them. It could be argued that none of Rangers' players would make Manchester United's team. Manchester United will be very highly motivated to win this one, and should do so, although it won't be easy.

Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth
Sheffield Wednesday are slightly over-rated by bookmakers because of who they are, not how good they are. Plymouth are playing very well at the moment, and should at least be able to match Sheffield Wednesday here. They have only one away defeat in the league this season, and have had a couple of very good wins recently. Sheffield Wednesday have done OK in recent weeks, but should never be such a short price to win this one.

Summary: The main bet is Under in the Ajax game, but a small, speculative treble could pay off at good odds. The odds on Ajax Under seem likely to drop by tomorrow, so it would be wise to take the bet as soon as possible. Premierbet are the only bookmaker offering really worthwhile odds on these bets.

October 25th 2003

8pts Manchester United / Plymouth / Celtic @ 2.42 Centrebet, Canbet
2.39 Gamebookers

Manchester United v Fulham
In Fulham's recent games, they seem to be slipping slightly from their early season form. Blowing a lead against Newcastle to lose, and drawing at home with Wolves, is not good going for them. With a few players missing as well, this promises to be a tough game for Fulham. After seeing them against Newcastle, it is hard to see them not conceding a few here. Manchester United will be looking to win this one easily, and despite not playing brilliantly recently, they should be able to win with something to spare.

Plymouth v Blackpool
It is hard to understand the high odds on offer for Plymouth. Blackpool aren't the best defensively, while Plymouth have managed 18 goals in their last 4 games. They have been playing superbly recently, and confidence is sure to be high for this one. Blackpool have been up and down all season, and are inconsistent, but away from home against a free-scoring team, they will find it very hard. Plymouth's odds are extremely generous given their superb recent results, including an easy victory at Sheffield Wednesday in midweek.

Celtic v Aberdeen
Despite their disappointing performance in the Champions League, Celtic will win this game comfortably. Aberdeen have a shocking record away at Celtic, with some very heavy recent defeats. This season their team appears worse than ever. Celtic will win unless something bizarre happens. The odds aren't great, but it helps to cost the odds in some accumulators.

1.25pts        Huddersfield / Kidderminster-Doncaster Draw / Oxford    @    7.75    Canbet
                                                                                                           7.70    Stan James
                                                                                                           7.47    Bet365

1.75pts        Huddersfield / Doncaster / Oxford    @    6.02    Stan James
                                                                              5.45    Gamebookers, Scandic

Huddersfield v Carlisle
Huddersfield are strong at home, and only tend to slip up against the stronger teams in Division Three. Carlisle are certainly not one of those, and seem like they are heading for relegation. Carlisle are having trouble scoring, especially away from home, so another defeat looks likely in this game. Huddersfield are on an excellent run of form at home, while Carlisle have lost almost every away game this season.

Kidderminster v Doncaster
Doncaster are probably the best team in Division Three right now. They have been scoring heavily, and playing really well. Against Rochdale in their last game, they had numerous shots on goal and 19 corners. Kiddersminster are poor and look unlikely to win this one. Doncaster have a couple on injuries, which means we are taking them to win and to draw. It is hard to see them losing if they play as they have been doing. Stan James go 2.50 on a Doncaster win, which seems out of line with other bookmakers.

Oxford v Bristol Rovers
A closer look at Bristol Rovers results seems to reveal that they do well against poor teams, but struggle badly against the better teams in Division Three. That is not good news for them in this game, as Oxford are one of the top teams in this division. Oxford were poor at York in midweek, but are strong at home and difficult to score against. Bristol Rovers have lost games recently against some decent teams, so another defeat is expected here.

3pts    Bolton-Birmingham Under 2.5 goals / Rotherham-West Brom Under 2.5 goals        @                                                   3.24    Premierbet
                                                   3.19    Centrebet
                                                   3.13    Gamebookers

Bolton v Birmingham
Quite simply, both of these teams this season have struggled to score and have adopted defensive tactics. Neither team will want to lose this game, and neither would be that unhappy with a draw. A 0-0 would be no surprise, so less than 3 goals looks a good bet.

Rotherham v West Brom
West Brom are quite happy to win 1-0 away from home, rarely scoring many goals, while Rotherham seem to have improved lately. Rotherham are much better defensively than in the early part of the season, and managed a 0-0 draw at Sunderland. West Brom are by no means certain to win 1-0, but whatever the result, it seems likely to be low-scoring.

0.3pts    Manchester United / Plymouth / Huddersfield / Doncaster / Oxford / Celtic                                                     @      13.37    Stan James
                                                                       13.05    Canbet
                                                                       13.02    Gamebookers

0.2pts    Manchester United / Plymouth / Huddersfield / Kidderminster-Doncaster Draw / Oxford / Celtic                  @                         18.72    Canbet
                                                        17.73    Gamebookers
                                                        17.11    Stan James

Summary: A larger than usual stake on a treble, in which all 3 teams look good to win. Plymouth are over-priced certainly, while the other two look nailed on. Combining the other bets as above should give a profit even if one team fails. One other bet seriously considered was Friio to score for Plymouth. He has 8 goals this season so far, and most of those are recently. Friio is currently 3.75 to score any time with Bet365, which is almost worth taking. He was 4.50, but unfortunately the odds have fallen. It is certainly a bet to consider though.

October 26th 2003

2.3pts    Middlesbrough        @    4.00    Bet365, Ladbrokes
                                                 3.95    Centrebet

2.7pts    Tottenham-Middlesbrough Draw    @    3.40    Ladbrokes, Centrebet, SportingOdds

Tottenham v Middlesbrough
Tottenham's recent revival is a bit mis-leading as they have been extremely lucky to draw with Manchester City and beat Leicester. They did play OK against Everton, but David Moyes said that that was Everton's worst performance for some time. Kanoute will miss this game with injury, which is a blow for Tottenham as he has scored a fair few goals for them, including the winner against Leicester. Middlesbrough welcome Southgate back from injury, which should help to make a difference. Against Newcastle and Chelsea they played superbly at times, only to lose. If they play as well again here, they will surely get a better result if their luck improves.

Summary: Taking Middlesbrough not to lose seems the way to go. They are playing better than Tottenham, and have been slightly under-estimated by the bookmakers.

October 28th 2003

5pts    Bolton / Manchester City    @    3.17    Premierbet
                                                          3.06    Blue Square
                                                          2.98    Betinternet

Bolton v Gillingham
Bolton have hinted that they will be close to full-strength for this game, with possibly Ba and Jardel being given a chance to improve their match fitness. Such players, despite problems recently, aren't going to weaken Bolton's team particularly. Gillingham are a decent Division One team, who won't give up easily. However, after seeing them play a couple of times this season, it is clear that they are a very limited team. Bolton rested a lot of players in both domestic cup competitions last season, which makes it a bit dangerous to back them before seeing their line-up, but things should be different this time. Against Walsall in the previous round, Bolton fielded a strong team and won 3-1. This time, their manager has indicated that he won't make too many changes from the team that faced Birmingham. Taking all this into account, makes it look like Bolton are a little over-priced.

QPR v Manchester City
Looking around at some QPR fans' forums recently, and it is clear that a large number of fans are unhappy with their team's performances in recent weeks. QPR have a few injury doubts for this one, plus Thorpe is cup-tied, so definitely won't play. Manchester City have named a strong squad, with only McManaman of their first-choice players being rested. Manchester City are a sort of team who will beat weaker teams almost every time. They should be backed in this sort of game against lower division opposition. Manchester City may opt to rest a couple of players from their first-choice team, but now have their strongest squad in years. With QPR being a little out of sorts recently, Manchester City should have the edge. The odds are a little low, but Manchester City are worth taking, as it is a good Premier League team against a good Division Two team.

Summary: A strong-looking double is the bet to take. It is a little dangerous staking too much on the Carling Cup, without knowing for sure which players will be rested by the leading teams. There is perhaps an argument for backing the underdog in such games. However, Bolton and Manchester City have named their squads, and have only left out a few of their better players. Both teams should be able to beat much weaker opposition. If these games were in the FA Cup, the odds would probably be a fair bit shorter. Most of the other games weren't really considered for betting purposes, as team news is uncertain on most of them.

October 29th 2003

6pts Aston Villa @ 1.70 Scandic
1.65 Centrebet, Interwetten

Aston Villa v Leicester
The outstanding piece of information for this game is that Leicester are making 10 changes to their starting line-up, after blowing a 3-0 lead to lose to Wolves on Saturday. Leicester have a few decent players in reserve, but surely Aston Villa should be able to beat Leicester's reserve team, when their strongest team has struggled so badly this season. Aston Villa took this competition very seriously in the previous round against Wycombe, so there is no reason to believe that they will not do so again here. Aston Villa have a couple of defensive injury problems, but will still be able to field a strong team. Aston Villa have tradionally struggled against Leicester, but that was Leicester under O'Neill. They have already beaten Leicester easily in the league this season.

3pts Aston Villa HT-FT / Hoggard Top England Bowler @ 6.88 Bet365

Bangladesh v England (Second Test)
Hoggard, as in the first test, seems likely to be England's most threatening bowler. On that occasion he was second to Harmison when it came to taking wickets, because Bangladesh seemed to have identified Harmison as the weaker bowler and therefore attacked him, and got out a couple of times to bad shots. This time though, Harmison is ruled out with injury. As a result, the Hoggard bet is worth taking again, as he is bowling well. The England spin bowlers, Giles and Batty will pose more threat in the second innings. This bet relates to the leading wicket taker in the first innings, when usually the quicker bowlers are more effective. Hoggard will probably be supported by Johnson, and possibly Saggers. Neither of these have a great deal of international experience, and are not as good bowlers as Hoggard. Hoggard will need to bowl well as Bangladesh may again attack the supposed weaker bowlers and end up getting out again. After seeing the first test, it seems that this bet has every chance of success, especially with Harmison absent.

Summary: Aston Villa look very strong to beat Leicester. As a result, the odds will no doubt drop. For example, William Hill have obviously heard the team news and go 1.44 on Aston Villa to win. Therefore if you are going to take this bet, it would make sense to get on early. Taking a small, slightly risky double on the two selections at Bet365 offers very generous odds. There is every chance that Aston Villa will win easily and thus be ahead by half-time. England's test match starts in the early hours of Wednesday morning (UK time). If Bangladesh end up batting first, the bet will be in play and therefore unable to be taken any longer, so again it is essential to take the bet before tomorrow morning.