Results of bets recommended

Details of bets

November 1st 2003
6pts Middlesbrough / Rangers @ 1.98 Skybet
1.93 Victor Chandler, Eurobet

Middlesbrough v Wolves
The simple fact here is that Middlesbrough are a much better team than Wolves. Apart from the Arsenal game, Middlesbrough could very easily have won all of their other home games this season. Against Chelsea, Newcastle and Leeds they played well, only to lose. Mendieta and Southgate both did not play in some of those games, but will play in this one, which will make a difference. Southgate makes a huge difference defensively, while Mendieta has looked outstanding in the league games that he has played so far. Wolves have improved in recent weeks after a disastrous start to the season, but still look destined for relegation. The comeback against Leicester was impressive, but that was at home to a far weaker team. It is doubtful that any of the Wolves players would make the Middlesbrough starting line-up. So as a result, Middlesbrough are a must in this game. A slight improvement in their luck and finishing, should see them win this game.

Rangers v Partick
Last season Rangers won every home league game, except one against Celtic late in the season. In most of those games, they were ahead by half time, and won comfortably. Recently, they have struggled in a couple of away games, but come into this game knowing that nothing less than a win is acceptable. Partick are the poorest team in the SPL this season, with only 2 points so far. A change in manager this season seems to have done them no good at all. Partick haven't been playing at all well, and this will probably be a damage limitation exercise for them.

Summary: Middlesbrough are 1.80 at Skybet, which is the reason for taking this bet now. Those odds are almost certain not to last very long. Rangers are added to make a double, and although the odds on them are short, their chances of winning are probably greater than the odds suggest. The Skybet odds almost double your money on this bet, which is very reasonable. Any further bets for the weekend will follow on Friday evening as usual.

4pts Oxford / Mansfield @ 2.33 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power

1.5pts Oxford / Mansfield / Hull-Macclesfield 3 or more goals @ 4.03 Bet365

Hull v Macclesfield
Hull seem very likely to win this game, having won 7 out of 8 home games this season in the league. All but one of their home league games have finished with 3 or more goals. The odds on Hull to win are a lot lower than 3 or more goals, but the chances of there being 3 or more goals seem almost as high as Hull winning. Macclesfield are a team with a couple of good attacking players, and it would be no surprise at all if they were to score here. Last season, 13 out of 23 of Macclesfield's away games had at least 3 goals, and they look set for a similar total this season. Hull are probably the best attacking team in Division Three, so taking 3 or more goals looks a good bet, as you can win the bet even if Hull fail to win.

Mansfield v Boston
Boston impressively beat Torquay 4-0 last week, but this was probably more a one-off than anything else. Their away form is pretty poor, losing most of the games and only scoring 4 goals. Boston also do not have a good record against the better teams in Division Three. Mansfield have 6 wins in 8 home league with 23 goals scored. They are very good at home, scoring plenty. Mansfield will certainly be challenging for promotion this season, while Boston certainly will not. Everything seems to point to a Mansfield victory here.

Oxford v Darlington
After a reasonable start to the season, Darlington have slipped back to their usual level of performance, losing most games. For this one, leading striker Conlon is likely to miss out with injury. Darlington have appointed a new manager, but it is hard to see how this can make much difference. Oxford are strong at home, rarely conceding a goal. One goal will probably be enough to win this for Oxford, and with the amount of goals Darlington are conceding, they should have no trouble getting it and more. Oxford have good strikers, so should win pretty easily.

Summary: A strong double and a treble including the total goals bet completes our bets for the weekend (Middlesbrough / Rangers double already advised). Other teams to come into consideration were Doncaster and Peterhead, also 3 or more goals on the Brentford game. There were however, sufficient doubts about these not to take them, although all could still win. Stan James also offer odds on 3 or more goals on the Hull game, but only offer 1.57. This would not be a good value bet, so Stan James' odds are not listed for this.

November 7th 2003

4pts Thurrock - Luton Goals X Corners Over 28 @ 2.10 Stan James

Thurrock v Luton
This is a game that Luton should win, even though the on-loan McSheffrey has been refused permission to play. He has scored a lot of goals recently, but Luton have many players capable of scoring. Indeed, they have been involved in a fair few high-scoring games this season already. Thurrock too seem to involved in many high-scoring games. Therefore a natural bet is to take 3 or more goals, but unfortunately odds of around 1.67 do not make this worthwhile. A closer look at Luton's games this season reveals that they usually involve a high number of corners, both for and against Luton. As this game will be televised, it is possible to take advantage of a bet not normally available on most games. Taking the Goal X Corners bet Over 28 looks a good idea. Assuming there are exactly 3 goals, all it would then need is 10 corners. Luton's games are on average well above that number. Luton gain an average of 6.52 corners per match and concede 5.08 corners per match. This means an average corner count of 11.60 per game. The possible downside of this bet as opposed to the straight 3 or more goals bet, is that you could get exactly 3 goals and less than 10 corners. On the positive side, you could for example get 15 corners and 2 goals and still win. If the game is open and there are 4 or 5 goals, you then only need 8 and 6 corners respectively. A fairly early goal should ensure quite a lot of goal mouth action, and thus plenty of corners. Odds of 2.10 compared to 1.67 for 3 or more goals make this look like a superb bet.

Summary: This is the only bet advised today, the rest of the weekend bets will follow as usual on Friday evening or Saturday morning. This is an unusual bet, but things point to this being over-priced and thus being a worthwhile bet. Stan James are the only bookmaker offering this special.

November 8th

5pts Arsenal / Brentford / Mansfield      @      2.38      Centrebet
                                                                  2.37      Tote Bet Xpress
                                                                  2.34      Premierbet

Arsenal v Tottenham
Tottenham had been picking up a few decent results before the home defeat by Bolton, but this hasn't masked poor performances. The 1-0 defeat flattered Tottenham, and it could have been far worse. The games at Leicester and Manchester City could also have been lost by a wide margin. None of those opponents are anywhere near as good as Arsenal, which is not good news for Tottenham. They also have a shocking record at Highbury in recent years, and top scorer Kanoute is out. Vieira will be missing for Arsenal, but this probably won't make a lot of difference. An easy home win seems likely here.

Brentford v Gainsborough
Brentford have really improved in recent games after looking woeful early on in the season. They have been doing well at home particularly, so will see this as a game they should win. Gainsborough have done well to get this far in the FA Cup, but without any notable wins. If Brentford play reasonably well, they should win this one.

Mansfield v Bishop's St
Mansfield are one of the form teams in Division Three at the moment, scoring plenty of goals. It was tempting to take 3 or more goals in this game, as both teams score and concede a lot, but odds of 1.53 weren't tempting. Mansfield are close to full strength, so should be able to win.

4pts Oldham / Aston Villa-Middlesbrough Less than 3 goals    @      2.33      Premierbet
                                                                                                  2.28      Scandic
                                                                                                   2.22      Bet365

Oldham v Carlisle
Both teams are missing a few players, but Carlisle have 3 key players suspended and a few more injured. Reading comments made by their manager, they expect to lose this one. Oldham rested a few players for the LDV Vans defeat by Bury, but certainly won't do that here. The chance of gaining much-needed money by being drawn away to a Premier League club in the Third Round, will make sure that they go all out to win this game. Oldham haven't had fantastic results lately, but then haven't played any teams as weak as Carlisle.

Aston Villa v Middlesbrough
Both of these teams have been struggling to score in recent games, but have made themselves hard to beat. Middlesbrough are better than their league position suggests, but simply don't have any good strikers. They have played well several times this season and not got the result they have deserved. The likely return of Mellberg for Aston Villa will make it harder for Middlesbrough to score, as will the injury to Christie. Both teams here will set out first not to lose, so a lot of goals looks unlikely.

4pts Blackpool / Bournemouth / Gretna    @      2.92      Canbet
                                                                      2.87      Tote Bet Xpress
                                                                   2.83      Stan James

Blackpool v Stalybridge
Blackpool have performed decently in recent games, especially at home. Stalybridge are 4 divisions below Blackpool, so if Blackpool play even averagely here, they should win this easily.

Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers
Bournemouth have been superb at home this season, and will fancy their chances of winning at home to lower division opposition. The fact that Bristol Rovers have some key players absent, including their top scorer, will only help Bournemouth. Bristol Rovers have managed to get a couple of reasonable away draws lately, but Bournemouth have beaten some of the top Division Two teams at home this season, and there is no reason to believe that they won't win this game.

Gretna v Elgin
Elgin were scoring and conceding a lot of goals early in the season, now they have stopped scoring so many, but are still conceding at quite a rate. Becoming the first team to lose to East Stirling in almost a year is not their only bad result lately. Gretna meanwhile have done well over the last month, and are expected to do so after investing quite heavily in players for this season. If Elgin continue to defend so poorly, another defeat is likely.

1.5pts West Ham-West Brom Less than 2 goals / Doncaster @ 8.00 Stan James

1.5pts West Ham-West Brom Exactly 2 goals / Doncaster @ 7.5 Stan James

West Ham v West Brom
West Ham have struggled to break down teams at home this season, and being without a couple of attacking players here won't help. West Brom are not easy to beat, and against a good team such as West Ham will set out to defend well, and maybe win 1-0. It seems like being a tense, close game between possibly the two best teams in Division One. A 0-0 would be no surprise, so taking a low-scoring game should pay off.

Scarborough v Doncaster
Doncaster are on a superb run at the moment, and seem unlikely to slip up here. Scarborough are not a very good team a division below them. Doncaster have been beating everyone in Division Three in recent games, and won't want to be defeated against a Conference team. Doncaster are almost at full-strength, so should win.

1pt Cambridge / Stockport / Scunthorpe    @      7.00      Ladbrokes
                                                                     6.91      Canbet
                                                                       6.90      Paddy Power

Lancaster v Cambridge
Cambridge are quite generously priced here against a team 2 divisions below them. Cambridge have been performing well away from home all season, and do have a couple of very good attacking players. As usual, these sort of games are all about the league team being able to play well. If they do, they should always win. Lancaster have had a good run in recent weeks, but will find this a big step up.

Stevenage v Stockport
The odds on Stockport to win this one are curiously high, given that they are 2 divisions above Stevenage. Stockport have shown signs of improvement lately, and have had some impressive away results, such as at Brighton and Swindon. Stevenage are a mid-table conference team who don't look great at all. Stockport are over-priced for this certainly.

Scunthorpe v Shrewsbury
Scunthorpe haven't done quite as well as expected this season, but have had some better results in recent games. Shrewsbury haven't shown any signs of improving since they were relegated from Division Three last season. Scunthorpe seem to be scoring plenty of goals now, which is bad news for Shrewsbury, who struggled to defend last season. Again, the odds on offer seem a little generous.

0.25pts Arsenal / Blackpool / Bournemouth / Brentford / Cambridge / Mansfield / Scunthorpe / Stockport / Gretna         @                                    45.93      Canbet
                                                                           45.70      Tote Bet Xpress
                                                                           42.69      Paddy Power

Summary: At this stage of the FA Cup, a few non-league teams often pull off shock results, so hopefully we have avoided the shocks. As an alternative to the bets with Stan James on West Ham and Doncaster, the double of West Ham-West Brom Less than 3 goals / Doncaster, is 3.60 at Premierbet and 3.50 at Centrebet. Hopefully at least 2 or 3 of the main bets will win to guarentee a profit this week. Other bets to almost make it were: Bolton Under, Derby Over, Sheff Utd Over, Sunderland to win and Leyton Orient to win. All were ruled out due to the odds not being quite high enough and some doubts existing.

November 9th 2003

5pts Notts County / Sheffield Wednesday / Bristol City   @      2.15      Eurobet
                                                                                           2.14      Tote Bet Xpress
                                                                                           2.04      Victor Chandler

Notts County v Shildon
Despite their dire financial situation, Notts County have improved their performances recently, especially at home. They have also played very well at Chelsea in the Carling Cup. Shildon are several divisions below Notts County and are unlikely to pose much threat. Notts County are quoted at prices as short as 1.07 at some bookmakers, but can be found at as high as 1.18 elsewhere.

Sheffield Wednesday v Salisbury
Sheffield Wednesday have been an excellent team to oppose this season in Division Two, but even they will not fail to win here. Salisbury are several divisions below Division Two, and have reached this stage of the FA Cup mainly because of kind draws. The difference between the teams is a large one, so it should be an easy home win.

Bradford Park Avenue v Bristol City
Despite Bristol City not winning much in recent weeks, this is a good opportunity to end their poor run. Bristol City are strong defensively, which will give them a big advantage in this sort of game, as they are sure to get chances to score themselves. Bradford Park Avenue are struggling in the Unibond Premier League, losing most of their home games. Bristol City are one of the better teams in Division Two, so look a little over-priced, despite their poor form.

Summary: Not the most imaginative of bets, but all the same one that should win. Other bets considered were Hearts, Man City-Leicester Over 2.5 goals and Chelsea-Newcastle Over 2.5 goals. All weren't taken due to their being sufficient doubts. The two Over bets could still be good bets when it is possible to see the line-ups, but it was impossible to advise them with confidence in advance.

November 14th 2003

5pts Cowdenbeath @ 1.40 Centrebet, Paddy Power, Tote Bet Xpress

Cowdenbeath v East Stirling
Don't be fooled by Cowdenbeath's apparently poor home record. Most of those home defeats were early in the season, against the better teams in the Scottish Third Division. However, they did end Stirling's long winning run by beating them in their last home game. East Stirling remain as bad as ever, despite beating Elgin lately. Away from home they have conceded 24, scored 3 and lost all 6 games. Cowdenbeath don't concede many, and against a team like East Stirling should be able to score a few. East Stirling are capable of scoring, but still can't defend, so it is hard to see them not losing. The odds here are slightly higher than expected, so we can take advantage.

Summary: We were also very close to taking Inverness to win against Ross County. The odds are fairly good, but with it being a local derby and Inverness not being in the greatest of form, we decided to leave it and just take a single on Cowdenbeath. Inverness could very well still win though. The rest of the weekend bet will follow on Friday evening or early Saturday morning as usual.

November 15th 2003

1.5pts Brighton-Bristol City 0 or 1 goals / Stirling Albion @ 5.78 Stan James

1.5pts Brighton-Bristol City Exactly 2 goals / Stirling Albion @ 5.78 Stan James

Brighton v Bristol City
Despite a couple of high-scoring games lately for both teams, Brighton are usually involved in pretty low-scoring games at home, while Bristol City rarely have high scoring away games. Out of 8 home games, Brighton have had 4 with at least 3 goals, while only 2 out of 8 of Bristol City's away games have featured 3 or more goals. Neither team is playing particularly well lately, but both must be considered among the best teams in Division Two. When good teams meet, there tends to be less goals than usual. Last season, less than 50% of Brighton's home games had at least 3 goals, and less than 50% of Bristol City's away games had at least 3 goals. That is why taking Stan James' odds is a good idea. They are the equivalent of taking Under 2.5 at odds of 2.00, which is certainly a worthwhile bet. These odds are much higher than expected.

Stirling Albion v Queen's Park
This is one of the best teams in Scottish Division Three against one of the worst. Stirling also have a superb record against Queen's Park in recent years, and have already beaten them 2-0 away from home this season. Stirling also have beaten all of the weaker teams they have faced at home pretty easily. Queen's Park do pull off the odd surprise result, but aren't having a good season, and will lose far more games than they win, especially against the top teams in the division. The odds aren't the greatest, but Stirling really should be able to get the better of Queen's Park here.

Summary: A solid looking double is the only bet of a difficult looking Saturday fixture list. There will probably be other bets for Sunday to follow on Saturday night. Bets that were almost taken included: Stranraer, Macclesfield-Scunthorpe 3 or more goals and Russia. The odds on these weren't quite high enough, but all three could still turn out to be winning bets. Bet365 actually offer odds for the bet above, but their odds on a low-scoring game between Brighton and Bristol City are so poor (equivalent of 1.70 for less than 3 goals) compared to Stan James, that they are not worth taking at all.

November 16th 2003

3pts Morton @ 2.25 Paddy Power, Stanleybet
2.20 Bet365

East Fife v Morton
These teams were both promoted last season, and have started well in Scottish Division Two. Morton have beaten East Fife in 4 out of 5 games last season and this. Morton have also won all of their away games so far this season. They have a couple of key players to come back into their team who missed the last game, so Morton should perform better here. East Fife are a big, strong team who try to use their strength to win matches, while Morton try to win using more footballing skill. Morton will be close to full strength for the game, and should win most games this season when they can field their strongest team.

Summary: No other Sunday football bets really appealed, but it was a close call about taking England to beat France in the Rugby Union World Cup. For those who have been members long enough, we do have a bet on Australia to win outright, so we thought we'd leave it, as actually it would be better if France won. Therefore Morton are the only bet for Sunday.

November 18th 2003

5pts Luton-Thurrock Over 2 goals @ 1.67 Stan James

Luton v Thurrock
Both of these teams have proved in their respective leagues this season that they can score goals, but also concede plenty. After watching the first game between these two, there were plenty of chances. Luton are very short-priced to win this game, but Thurrock are not without a chance to score. Luton should win, but it is better to take the 1.67 for Over 2 goals, than the 1.17 for Luton to win. Luton could very well score 3 by themselves, as it is hard to predict how the non-league team will perform away from home.

Summary: Apologies for the e-mail being a bit later than usual, but we were waiting to see if other bookmakers would offer odds on this bet. In the end, it appears that only Stan James are doing so. The bet is a good value one, as we expected the price to be about 1.50. Any bets for Wednesday's football will be sent out tonight.

November 22nd 2003

5pts J.Wilkinson to be first England points scorer @ 2.00 Gamebookers

Australia v England (Rugby Union World Cup Final)
It seemed like the best bet of all time was on offered at Gamebookers today. Jonny Wilkinson was 25.00 to score England's first points of the World Cup Final. This was obviously a crazy price, and seemed to be the first try-scorer odds. I e-mailed Gamebookers asking for clarification, and the reply was that the bet was indeed the first point scorer (try, drop-goal, penalty). However, I must have alerted them as the odds were then cut to 2.00 when I checked. This is still too high, and I feel it was worth checking the validity of the bet before placing it. I'm pretty sure that if I had placed that bet at odds of 25.00, they would have declared palpable error and probably voided it. Despite all this, the odds are still too high. Wilkinson has been taking all of England's drop-goal attempts, and obviously all of their penalty attempts. The bet is basically saying that it is 50/50 whether England score a try first or a penalty/drop-goal. I would've said that the chances of a try rather than the other two are more like 30%. And of course, Wilkinson has 5 tries in 51 England appearances, so him scoring the first try isn't impossible by any means. All in all, this is a very good value bet.

Summary:   For people who have been members for over 2 weeks, we still have a bet on Australia to win the World Cup @ 6.00. We will probably be looking to hedge this bet later in the week, so watch out for further e-mails.

5pts    Australia (Rugby Union World Cup)    @    6.00    Canbet, Skybet
                                                                        5.50    Blue Square

Rugby World Cup Outright (advised 2nd November )
After watching the opening stages of the World Cup, it is clear that England and New Zealand are not unbeatable. England struggled against Samoa, and New Zealand struggled against a mostly second-string Wales team. It can be argued that both teams are merely saving themselves for the knock-out stages, but this isn't necessarily the case. England look to be making too many errors when the pressure is on, but I'd still give them the edge over New Zealand. Originally the bet was going to be to lay New Zealand. It is likely that they are going to have to beat South Africa, Australia and England in that order to win the World Cup. A defeat along the way is perfectly possible. However, laying New Zealand at odds of around 2.80 isn't going to make a lot of profit. New Zealand looked weak in the scrum and line-out against Wales in their first real test of the World Cup. They will have to overcome two big, physical teams in South Africa and Australia to even reach the final. England are the likely opposition, and I simply can't see New Zealand beating all three teams. Looking at the quarter-final draw, England and Australia should win fairly comfortably against Wales and Scotland respectively. England would then probably face France in the semi-final, if France can beat Ireland as expected. France have been impressive so far, but haven't faced particularly good opposition. England have the edge over them in recent meetings certainly. Their only recent defeat against France came when they fielded a reserve team, and even then France only won very narrowly. France are the sort of team who can raise their game though, as New Zealand found out in the last World Cup, so they can't be written off. Australia do have home advantage for this World Cup, which should not be under-estimated. In this year's Tri-Nations games, they won their home games, 16-14 against New Zealand and 38-27 against South Africa. They lost both away games, but only narrowly. Australia virtually have a bye into the semi-finals by playing against Scotland, while whoever wins out of New Zealand and South Africa are likely to have had a far tougher game. Therefore, I don't see why New Zealand are such a short price compared to Australia to win the World Cup. I would say that Australia will have at least a 50/50 chance of winning should the teams meet in the semi-final. South Africa could beat New Zealand, and if they do, Australia would start as big favourites in the semi-final. All in all, I think that England would beat Australia in the final if that match-up were to occur. I think Australia would certainly beat France, as they did in 1999, if those countries reach the final. The bet here has to be Australia. It will probably all hinge on a semi-final meeting with New Zealand. If Australia meet England in the final, I think hedging the bets at this point is wise. If France are the opponents, I'd take Australia to win, and therefore let the bet run. New Zealand are vulnerable, so I think this bet is the best way to take them on. If South Africa do pull off a shock win over New Zealand, Australia's odds will tumble, so hedging at any point after that would be possible.

Summary: Betfair currently have over £2000 to match on Australia @ 6.00. That still works out at 5.75 after 5% commission is deducted, and is a good idea if you do not have Canbet or Skybet accounts. There are no more matches in the Rugby World Cup until Saturday, so there is plenty of time to place any bets. The odds on Australia may or may not drop, but it is best to take the bet now, just in case they do.

17.64pts England (Rugby Union World Cup) @ 1.70 Centrebet

Rugby World Cup Outright
As we already have Australia at odds of 6.00, now is the time to take the guaranteed profit. England have beaten Australia for the last 4 times, and appear to have the edge. Australia are not without a chance here, and it should be pretty close. Betfair offer a market on the game, England +3.5 points. It is possible to take England on this market, and win both this bet and the outright bet Australia. Some money has been matched @ 1.79, but now only about £50 is available to match @ 1.53. This clearly isn't acceptable and it is impossible to advise this with so little money to match at such a low price. All of the money this week appears to be for England, so now is the time to take them with Centrebet before the price drops any further. England should win a low-scoring games by a few points, so hedging is the best option.

Summary: This bet clearly only applies to those people who followed our advice to take Australia @ 6.00 on November 2nd. Anyone who either wasn't a member then or didn't take the bet, should ignore this e-mail. We wouldn't put anyone off backing England for this game, but the value in them has now gone. Hedging in this way guarantees a profit of almost 7.5pts on the bet, which is reasonable.

4pts Cardiff @ 2.30 Canbet
2.25 Blue Square, Centrebet

Wimbledon v Cardiff
Wimbledon have improved lately, and have actually won a few games. They have the same players who struggled so much earlier in the season, so there is no reason to suspect they are much better than before. Wimbledon were incredibly lucky to beat West Brom, and beat Bradford and Gillingham, who aren't great. Cardiff have a strong team all round, and should have no problems scoring against Wimbledon. Wimbledon also have a few players suffering from flu, which won't help them. Cardiff are generously-priced here, and this should be taken advantage of.

4pts Stranraer @ 2.10 William Hill

Clachnacuddin v Stranraer
Clachnacuddin may be top of the Highland League, but in recent years, teams from that league have not had a lot of success in the Scottish Cup. Having said this, they are probably better than a couple of teams in Scottish Division Three. Stranraer are on superb form, and have been playing very well away from home this season. They won't find this game easy, but Clachnacuddin will find it hard against good opposition. I expected Stranraer to be odds-on, so they are worth taking at the price on offer.

4pts Manchester United-Blackburn Over 2.5 goals / Rangers / Higgins   @      2.11      Canbet
                                                                                                                 2.10      Bet365
                                                                                                                 2.03      Stan James

Manchester United v Blackburn
Manchester United should win this game, but Blackburn are well capable of scoring a goal. The odds on the game being high scoring are far more tempting than the odds for a Manchester United win. The corresponding fixture in recent years has always featured at least 3 goals, while currently Blackburn have just about the worst defense in the Premier League. Manchester United could easily score 3 on their own, although Blackburn are better attacking than defending, so could score also. All in all, a good bet is to take Over 2.5 goals.

Rangers v Aberdeen
Aberdeen are shockingly poor, and look unlikely to improve any time soon. Away from home this season, they are unlikely to pick up many points. Rangers will win virtually all their home games against teams other than Celtic, and this one will be no different. The odds are short, but it should be a comfortable home win.

Higgins v Wattana (UK Snooker Championship)
The odds on Higgins are incredibly short, but there is no way he should even come close to losing this. His form in the British Open was superb, and he looks to be back to his best this season. Wattana had a good win in the previous round, but he has done nothing over the past few years to suggest he can win this match. Over the longer best of 17 frames match, the better player should come out on top.

Summary: Bets that didn't quite make the selections this week were: Swansea, Cheltenham, Hull-Yeovil Over and Mansfield-Huddersfield Over. The bets taken should do well, and it will require two out of the three main bets to win to make a profit. Anyone taking all of the recommended rugby bets, already has a guaranteed profit from today's Rugby Union World Cup Final. Any bets for Sunday will follow tonight.

November 26th 2003

4pts    Chelsea / Stuttgart    @    2.08    Scandic
                                                 1.99    Tote Bet Xpress
                                                 1.98    Betinternet

Chelsea v Sparta Prague
Chelsea need to win this game to be certain of making the next round. They won't want to go to Besiktas in the last game needing anything, so they will play a strong team. Sparta Prague have not shown any brilliant form in the Champions League this season. They have already lost at home to Chelsea, and will be missing a couple of their better players here. Sparta Prague did take a 2-goal lead against Lazio, but that was more to do with Lazio's defensive problems. Sparta Prague defensively are not the best, so unless Chelsea are well below par, this should be an easy home win.

Stuttgart v Rangers
The thing that made this a bet to be taken, is Arteta being ruled out for Rangers. He has been Rangers' best midfielder this season, and possibly their best player. With De Boer and Moore also missing, Rangers will be missing some key players. They cannot afford to draw this game, so if they attack, their poor defence will be exposed. Stuttgart have only conceded 3 goals in their domestic league this season, and will be looking to win this game to make sure of qualification. It is also important for Stuttgart to win as then they will require a draw at most from their last game at Manchester United to win the group and be seeded in the next round. Rangers have not played at all well against the very poor Scottish Premier League teams lately, and will probably find this game too much.

1pts Chelsea / Stuttgart to win to nil / Ajax-Milan Under 2.5 goals @ 5.19 Bet365

Ajax v Milan
With their group delicately poised, these teams will both be eager to avoid defeat here. For Milan, a draw would be acceptable as they have a home game to come. As a result, they will probably adopt their usual defensive attitude, and will not really attack unless they go behind. Ajax need to win more, but again will be eager not to lose with things in their group being so close and every point being crucial. It all points to being a close game with few goals. These teams also met in the Champions League quarter-finals last season. The leg in Amsterdam finished 0-0. Ajax's European games tend to be more high-scoring when they play away, so taking Under is best when they are at home.

Summary: Nothing else really appealed from Wednesday's Champions League games. Over 2.5 goals in the Chelsea game was a possibility, but Sparta Prague are far from certain to score. Stuttgart and Chelsea should both win against teams who can't afford to settle for a draw.

November 29th 2003

4pts    Aston Villa-Southampton Under 2.5 goals / Celtic / Stranraer    @    3.12    Gamebookers
                                                                                                             2.98    Sportingbet
                                                                                                             2.95    Canbet

Aston Villa v Southampton
The simple fact about this game is that both teams have been really struggling to score goals. Southampton have made themselves fairly hard to beat, but rarely score themselves. This looks like being a close, defensive game. Beattie has been injured for Southampton, while Aston Villa's Angel has been on international duty. Fitness doubts over each teams' top striker makes it more likely that goals will be hard to come by.

Celtic v Partick
Probably the most one-sided game of the day. Celtic might rest a few players, but will beat the worst team in the SPL. There seems little doubt about the final result, and Celtic are taken to boost the odds slightly.

Elgin v Stranraer
Stranraer have consistently performed well away from home this season, and are on good form at the moment. Their only poor results tend to come against good teams. Luckily, Elgin are not a good team. They seem to concede several goals in every game, and have not been scoring as heavily as in the early games this season. Elgin look to be struggling badly, and despite the fairly low odds, Stranraer should have the edge here.

4pts    Huddersfield-Cheltenham Over 2 goals / Inverness    @    2.52    Bet365
                                                                                             2.31    Gamebookers
                                                                                             2.20    Stan James

Huddersfield v Cheltenham
Cheltenham have been scoring and conceding goals at quite a rate all season. While Huddersfield are normally good defensively at home, they have been involved in a few high-scoring games recently. The main reason to take this bet is the high odds on offer with Bet365. Stan James go 1.57 for more than 2 goals, while Gamebookers have 1.65. Bet365 have 1.80, which makes the bet worth taking. Cheltenham could score here, while they seem certain to concede. Whatever happens, there promises to be goals.

Inverness v Brechin
Brechin have picked up a little lately, but still only have managed 1 point away from home this season. They look out of their depth in Scottish Division One, and will find it very tough against one of the top teams in the division. Inverness have been up and down this season, but have usually played well at home. After a good win last week, confidence should be high, and they should win.

0.5pts Aston Villa-Southampton Under 2.5 goals / Huddersfield-Cheltenham Over 2 goals / Celtic / Inverness / Stranraer @ 7.22 Gamebookers
7.12 Bet365

Summary: The first bet (3.12 with Gamebookers) can be taken in 2 separate bets with Stan James, on 0 or 1 goals in the Southampton game and exactly 2 goals in the same game, at equivalent odds of 3.10. Similarly, the final bet can be taken with Stan James at equivalent odds of 6.82 with Stan James. Other bets considered for Saturday included Colchester, Oxford, Doncaster, Dunfermline, Under 2.5 goals in the match at Bolton and Over 2.5 goals in the match at Wolves. All had too many doubts to be taken at the odds on offer.

November 30th 2003

5pts Hendry / Arsenal @ 1.96 Canbet
1.93 Centrebet, Bet365

Hendry v Stevens (UK Snooker Championship Final)
Stevens scraped into this final with a very unconvincing win over Jimmy White in the semi-finals. He has never won a ranking event, despite reaching finals before. It seems that Stevens may not be able to cope with the pressure of trying to win a major tournament. Hendry doesn't have the same problem, and is attempting to win his sixth UK Championship here. He was superb in the semi-final against O'Sullivan, in possibly his best performance in several years. If he plays anything like as well here, he will surely win easily. The odds are higher than expected, so it is a bet worth taking.

Arsenal v Fulham
Arsenal have beaten Fulham 4 times in 4 meetings since Fulham were promoted to the Premier League. Fulham, apart from the win against Manchester United, haven't played well against the better teams this season. They have lost recently to Liverpool, Charlton and Newcastle. Arsenal are much better than any of those teams, so it should be expected that Fulham will lose again here. Fulham's defence is poor, so Arsenal should be able to score a few here. Fulham aren't without a chance to score, but the odds on offer, especially from Canbet, are generous enough to take this bet.

2pts Hendry / Arsenal / Middlesbrough not to lose @ 3.42 Bet365, Centrebet
3.36 Sporting Odds

Manchester City v Middlesbrough
Manchester City have been pathetic recently, losing their last 2 league games 3-0 to Leicester and Newcastle. They also lost in the UEFA Cup in midweek to Groclin, a team that they should never have lost to. Middlesbrough have improved recently, but still lack strikers who can score regularly. The rest of their team should be good enough to at least avoid defeat here, as they have been defending well recently. Manchester City are bound to be lacking confidence, and may be slightly tired after playing in Poland in midweek. Middlesbrough have every chance here, so taking them not to lose is the best option.

Summary: A safe looking double is the main bet today, along with a treble that has every chance of winning. Chelsea were considered also, but have performed poorly a little too often lately to be taken.