Results of bets recommended

Details of bets

January 3rd 2004

7pts Charlton / Middlesbrough / Sunderland      @      3.37      Sportingbet
                                                                              3.34      Bet365
                                                                              3.31      Stanleybet

Gillingham v Charlton
Every time that Gillingham have faced a top Division One team at home this season, with the exception of West Ham, they have lost. West Brom, Norwich, Sunderland and Preston have all won at Gillingham this season. Gillingham have also recently sold top striker King. They also have a few un-named players struggling with injury here. Charlton are flying after beating Chelsea and Tottenham in their last 2 games, and have no new injuries. Their odds here are too high against an average team, who have lost almost half of their home league games this season.

Middlesbrough v Notts County
Despite giving Mendieta a rest, Middlesbrough should win this easily. Virtually all of their other players are available, while Notts County are struggling with a couple of injuries in their small squad. Middlesbrough sometimes struggle to score, but should be able to score a few here against a team with the equal worst away defensive record in Division Two. Notts County have been very poor lately, and despite the poor odds, Middlesbrough are worth taking, as there seems little doubt that they will win.

Sunderland v Hartlepool
Sunderland should win here, against a Hartlepool team who have struggled after a good start to the season. QPR battered Hartlepool in a recent away game, and this should be more of the same. Hartlepool have not done well against the better teams in Division Two this season. Sunderland have won their last 3 games, which is no coincidence, as McAteer and Arca have returned to their team. Sunderland found it difficult for a while, with many midfielders injured, but as their players return, they should do better. Hartlepool were 3 divisions below Sunderland last season, and both teams still retain several of last season's players. The difference is ability should show in this game.

5pts Crewe / Portsmouth / Bolton @ 3.33 Canbet
3.27 UK Betting, Totalbet

Crewe v Telford
There are 3 divisions between these two teams. Crewe have been odds-on at home this season against some decent Division One teams, as they have a very good home record. They should be too strong against a mid-table Conference team. The odds are pretty short, but still worthwhile. The deciding factor in taking Crewe is that Telford had a hard game only 2 days ago, while Crewe have had an extra few days of rest. Crewe have been good at home all season, and will fancy their chances here.

Portsmouth v Blackpool
Portsmouth will be missing a few players for this game, especially in midfield. Roberts has also been refused permission to play. However, they will still be able to field a strong team, definitely stronger than the team which won them Division One last season. Portsmouth will probably be glad to face slightly easier opposition and get away from the struggles of the league. They have been good at home, this season and last, and look over-priced here. Blackpool are not an especially good team by Division Two standards, and are fairly easy to score against. Portsmouth should win this comfortably, and are a good bet.

Tranmere v Bolton
As long as Bolton take this seriously, they should win. They have rested players in the FA Cup at times during the past couple of seasons, but perhaps with them performing better in the league this season, there is no need to save players for a relegation battle. Bolton do have some suspensions to cope with, but Tranmere are a poor team. Even when they have picked up decent results lately, they have been out-played. Bolton have been playing very well in most games this season, and will win if they play well here. Bolton are a team who always give maximum effort, so are worth taking in this game. Any fringe players who start for Bolton will be looking to prove a point, and gain a regular starting place in the team.

1pt Crewe / Charlton / Middlesbrough / Portsmouth / Sunderland / Bolton / Stirling                                                                                          @      14.26      Canbet
                                                                                             14.05      Centrebet
                                                                                           13.54      UK Betting, Totalbet

East Stirling v Stirling Albion
Bottom against top in Scottish Division Three here. It is possible that this game may be lost to the weather, but if not, it should be a comfortable away win. East Stirling have been close to picking up points lately, but ultimately have still been losing. Stirling haven't been brilliant lately, but all the decent teams in this division beat East Stirling. East Stirling simply concede too many goals, and look set for another defeat.

3pts Mansfield-Burnley Over 2.5 goals / Swansea-Macclesfield Over 2.5 goals

                              @     3.61    Premierbet
                                       3.06    Interwetten
                                      2.88    Stan James

Mansfield v Burnley
Over the past season or two, these teams have been possibly involved in more high-scoring games than any other teams in the Football League. Both have injury doubts over defenders, so Premierbet's 1.90 for Over 2.5 goals is too good to miss.

Swansea v Macclesfield
All of Swansea's key attacking players are available again. They had some low scoring games while they had players missing. Macclesfield could be missing 3 of their first-choice back four due to injury and suspension for this game. Swansea have been scoring and conceding a lot of goals lately, while Macclesfield have had the majority of their away games this season finish with at least 3 goals. Again, Premierbet's 1.90 for Over 2.5 goals is generous.

Summary: Two solid trebles are taken this week, both of which have a good chance of winning. If one wins, a profit is certain. These teams are then combined in a small bet with Stirling, in an accumulator that has a better chance of winning than the odds indicate. The Over bets are combined in a double at generous odds with Premierbet. Stan James go 2.88 for the same bet, which is a good indicator. No other bets were considered too seriously this week, apart from St Johnstone. Their odds dropped over the course of the week though, so they were not taken in the end. Hopefully we can follow up the 35pt profit of Sunday with another good win.

January 6th 2004

5pts Angel - First goalscorer Aston Villa-Portsmouth @ 5.50 Victor Chandler
5.00 Bet365, Stan James

Aston Villa v Portsmouth
Normally we would not get involved with first goalscorer betting, but the odds on this one do seem just a little bit high. Until the FA Cup defeat against Manchester United, Angel had scored first in Aston Villa's previous three home games. Indeed, it took a good save to stop him scoring first against Manchester United. Also, Angel will take penalties for Aston Villa if he is on the field. The way Aston Villa play means that a lot of their attacking play centres on Angel. He is of course not certain to score first, but Victor Chandler's odds are very generous. Portsmouth have only scored 2 goals away from home all season, and have a few players missing here with injury. It was tempting to take Aston Villa to win, but the odds are a little short. Since they played on Sunday, they may be a little tired. Tiredness could affect them in the second half, by which time Angel will hopefully have scored first. Another option, was to take this bet with Blue Square. Their odds are only 4.50, but they offer refunds on losing first goalscorer bets if the game finishes 0-0. Two of Portsmouth's away games have finished 0-0 this season, as have two of Aston Villa's home games, and two of Aston Villa's away games. The difference between Blue Square's and Victor Chandler's odds just make it not worthwhile however. With both teams a little tired, it shouldn't finish 0-0.

Summary: Any bets for Wednesday's football will follow late on Tuesday evening.

January 10th 2004

6pts Arbroath / Livingston / Clyde @ 2.33 Scandic
2.17 UK Betting, Totalbet

Arbroath v Spartans
Spartans have done very well to reach this stage of the Scottish Cup. In the last round they beat Alloa, after extra time in a replay. Alloa did play most of the replay with 10 men, and did hold a 3-1 lead in the original game. Spartans play in the East of Scotland League, and are having a good season. Arbroath however, are improving recently. They have done well in the league, and have proved they can deal with lower division opposition, by winning at Division Three leaders Stirling Albion in the last round of the Scottish Cup. It seems hard to imagine that Spartans can raise their game again to pull off a shock. Arbroath will certainly be very motivated to win, to keep alive their hopes of a big windfall by drawing Rangers or Celtic in the next round. The odds on Arbroath look just a little high, and they should be able to win this one.

Livingston v Montrose
The odds on Livingston are very low indeed, but that is because they should win with ease. The gulf between the Scottish Premier League and the Scottish Third Division is huge. Montrose have already lost 9-0 at Hibs this season, and while this probably won't be such a big defeat, Livingston will win. Montrose are not quite as bad as earlier in the season, but with Livingston at full strength, this will be an easy home win.

Clyde v Gretna
Gretna are enjoying a very good run in Division Three, but this is a very hard task for them. Clyde are doing extremely well in Division One, and have a superb home record, as they did last season. Gretna are certainly one of the better teams in the Third Division, but it is very hard to see them avoiding defeat here. Clyde want a good cup run to help fund ground improvements, should they win their league. Clyde are also close to full strength for the game. The odds are quite generous because Gretna have done well this season, but this will prove a game too far for them.

Summary: Other teams considered were Doncaster, Stirling and Northampton not to lose. The odds on these weren't quite high enough to take, so we settled on a safe-looking Scottish Cup treble. All of the home teams taken are strongly expected to win. Any Sunday football bets will follow on Saturday evening.

January 17th 2004

5pts Huddersfield / Inverness @ 2.21 Ladbrokes
2.20 Bet365, Premierbet

Huddersfield v Boston
Huddersfield have a superb home record, and have been playing quite well both home and away recently. Boston's problem this season, is that they rarely score away from home. As a result, the majority of their away games have ended in defeat. In the last couple of months, Huddersfield have beaten Hull and Doncaster at home, both far better teams than Boston. Huddersfield have the good combination of a strong defence and good strikers. Stead is possibly the best player in Division Three. Huddersfield are on a good run, and should be too strong for Boston here.

Inverness v Ayr
Inverness are on superb form and are scoring plenty of goals. They have a couple of regular strikers probably fit to return to their squad also. Ayr are struggling this season, and do not have the best of records against Inverness. Ayr are struggling for wins over the past couple of months, and haven't been doing so well against even the poorer teams in Scottish Division One. The odds are short, but Inverness at home usually perform well. The bet is just about worth taking.

4pts Manchester City-Blackburn Over 2.5 goals / Kidderminster @ 3.20 Bet365
3.11 Canbet, Stan James

Manchester City v Blackburn
This game seems likely to be high-scoring. Both teams have been involved in a few high-scoring games lately, and both teams are prone to defensive mistakes, while also having strikers capable of scoring goals. A look at last season's statistics shows that Manchester City had the majority of their home games (12/19) finish Over 2.5 goals, while Blackburn had the same number of their away games finish Over 2.5 goals. This equates to over 63% of each team's respective home and away games. It has been a similar story this season also. Manchester City struggled in front of goal for several games until recently, but now seem to have regained their scoring touch. Thankfully, they are still conceding plenty of goals as well. This bet seems a little over-priced, so it worth taking on.

Kidderminster v Darlington
Kidderminster have improved since Jan Molby took over as manager again. They could, and probably should, have knocked Wolves out of the FA Cup. Kidderminster's recent form is good, and they were a little unlucky to lose at Wolves and Mansfield in their last 2 games. Darlington meanwhile, are struggling to pick up any points at all. The club is in administration, and has many problems. Matthews and James, two loan players who were in Darlington's starting line-up, have returned to their clubs this week. Darlington also have a key defender suspended, plus a couple of other injury doubts. Their team is weakened from recent weeks when even with more players available, they have been losing almost every game. Kidderminster will see this game as crucial, because if they win, it makes them almost safe from relegation. It will make it very hard for Darlington to catch them. As long as Kidderminster aren't suffering a hangover from their FA Cup defeat, they should win this comfortably.

0.5pts Manchester City-Blackburn Over 2.5 goals / Huddersfield / Kidderminster / Doncaster / Inverness / Stranraer      @      27.07      Bet365
                                             25.87      Canbet
                                             25.70      Sportingbet

Southend v Doncaster
After a brief revival, Southend are struggling badly again, and aren't helped by several players being doubtful for this game. The FA Cup defeat at Scarborough will have been a massive blow to Southend, with Chelsea awaiting in the next round, along with a massive financial boost for the club. Southend have lost far too many home games this season, and look to be on another poor run of form. Doncaster have lost a couple of games recently, but only against good teams in Division Three, Hull and Huddersfield. Doncaster won very easily last week, so confidence should be high for this one. The odds on Doncaster are pretty generous, and are worth taking.

Albion v Stranraer
Albion are a full-time team, and it is a surprise to see them struggling in the Scottish Third Division this season. It is almost as if they have given up this season now, as they have suffered home defeats lately against teams that they would never have lost to last season. Stranraer are playing well, both home and away. They have been scoring a lot of goals, and need to keep winning to keep up their promotion push. Albion appear to be really struggling, and even almost lost to East Stirling recently. With a similar set of players, Albion did well last season, but on current form, they just have to be opposed.

Summary: The only other bet considered really was Under 2.5 goals on Millwall v Sunderland. The odds were just a little low on this to take in the end. Of the bets taken, there are slight doubts about Stranraer and Doncaster, so they are only included in the small stakes accumulator. Confidence is high in the two doubles taken though, so the accumulator could well pay. Despite the small doubts about Stranraer and Doncaster, it was worth taking them in bets combined in this way, with the other more confident selections being the main part of Saturday's bets.

January 18th 2004

4pts Chelsea-Chelsea HT-FT @ 1.80 Canbet, Centrebet
1.75 Betinternet

Chelsea v Birmingham
Birmingham have several key players absent from this game, including key defender Upson and top-scorer Forssell. It is hard to see them avoiding a comfortable defeat, as their team is packed with average players. Chelsea have a good enough first half record at home to make the HT/FT bet worthwhile. Birmingham's last away game was a big defeat at Tottenham, and with Chelsea having their confidence back after consecutive 4-0 wins, they should be ahead by half time. The gulf between these teams is wide enough to make this HT/FT good value.

Summary: No other bets were really considered for Sunday, as Arsenal and Celtic are both slightly under-priced in difficult away games.

January 20th 2004

5pts Arsenal-Middlesbrough Over 2.5 goals / QPR      @      3.55      Canbet
                                                                                       3.44      Gamebookers
                                                                                       3.33      Bet365

Arsenal v Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough have been involved in a few high-scoring games recently. It is likely there will be a few goals here, as it appears that Southgate and Cooper are out, with Ehiogu probably out too. They are Middlesbrough's three best central defenders, and without them on Saturday, Leicester found it easy to score against them. Arsenal will field a virtual reserve team here, but a few first-team players will be playing. Arsenal will certainly be going for goals, in an attempt to gain an advantage for the second leg. Middlesbrough manager Steve McLaren was quoted on the Middlesbrough club website as saying that they had come this far and they were going to have a go. This seems to indicate the Middlesbrough will not sit back and play for a draw. With many younger players in Arsenal's team, they won't have the physical strength to defend well for the whole game. Arsenal will also have a very inexperienced goalkeeper, Stack, which leaves them prone to conceding goals. Arsenal can certainly score goals with the team they will send out, as Wolves found out at Highbury earlier in the competition. As long as Middlesbrough show some ambition, which they look like doing, there should be plenty of goals in this game. The odds on Over 2.5 goals are pretty generous.

Southend v QPR
QPR have a few first-team players absent here, but from what I can gather, they will field pretty much the same line-up as the one that played in the league at the weekend. QPR appear to be taking this game seriously, rather than resting players, as they are pretty close to making the final, and having a decent pay-day. Southend have many players out, and have been playing very poorly recently. Doncaster beat them with ease at the weekend. QPR are the best team in Division Two I believe, so if they take this seriously, they should win comfortably. Southend won't make it easy, but with key players, they will struggle. Southend have suffered far too many home defeats this season, and this game should be another. The odds are higher than expected, so it is certainly worth taking a bet on QPR.

Summary: Not a lot of other bets to consider for Tuesday. The only other football games are all LDV games, which all look pretty close. The double we have taken looks to have a very good chance at very good odds. Any bets on the Wednesday games, will be sent as soon as possible. If there are doubts over team news, it could be tomorrow afternoon before the bets are sent, if any bets are taken.

January 24th 2004

8pts Birmingham / Peterhead / Stranraer @ 2.22 Stanleybet
2.19 Centrebet, Scandic

Birmingham v Wimbledon
Wimbledon sold two first-choice players to West Ham in midweek, and are severely short on players for this game. They are struggling in Division One, and it is very hard to see them avoiding defeat here with a very young team, without some of their better players who have been sold recently. Birmingham aren't brilliant, but should win this easily. The odds are generous considering how weak Wimbledon are. It is basically a mid-table Premier League team against a team who would struggle in Division Two.

Peterhead v East Stirling
East Stirling continue to be as bad as ever, losing all of their away games this season. Peterhead aren't having a brilliant season, but have been pretty solid at home this in recent weeks. Peterhead do not concede many goals, so will probably be able to win this game very easily. East Stirling concede far too many goals, and even if they do take the lead, then to collapse. Peterhead must win this game to keep up their promotion challenge, while East Stirling have little to play for since there is no relegation in the Scottish Third Division.

Stranraer v Elgin
Elgin concede a lot of goals. They sometimes score a lot too, but have a striker crisis for this game. There are rumours of a 15 year old playing as a striker for Elgin in this game. They have a very long trip to Stranraer, which may tire them out even before the game starts. Stranraer have been excellent this season, and rarely concede goals. They also have a superb record against Elgin, so it is hard to see this game ending with anything other than an easy Stranraer win. The odds are quite generous considering the circumstances, so Stranraer are a must bet.

5pts Portsmouth / Torquay / Hearts @ 3.21 Totalbet, UK Betting
3.10 Premierbet

Portsmouth v Scunthorpe
Much has been made about Portsmouth's injury crisis, and they are a little short on strikers. Looking at the squad they have named though, the rest of the team looks strong. Scunthorpe are having a poor run in Division Three, and are missing key players for this game. Top scorer McLean is almost certain to miss out, which greatly reduces their scoring threat. Scunthorpe recently lost 4-0 at Sheffield Wednesday with a stronger team than the one that will take on Portsmouth. The gulf between these teams is massive, and it is hard to see Portsmouth not winning.

Torquay v Macclesfield
Torquay are playing well at the moment, and have played superbly in their last 2 league games. They have a good home record, and have a virtually fully fit squad for this game. Macclesfield have a long journey to Torquay and could be without their best player, Tipton. Macclesfield have lost to some worse teams than Torquay recently, and there seems no reason for Torquay to be priced so high for this game. Macclesfield have lost the majority of their away games this season, and are not playing well at the moment.

Hearts v Partick
Hearts have a very good home record, and can count themselves unfortunate to lose their last home game against Celtic. Partick have picked up only 2 points away from home this season, and despite a couple of decent home results lately, they can't pick up many points away from home. Partick have already been beaten by Hearts this season, and should lose again here. Partick haven't strengthened their squad since they really struggled early in the season, so there is no reason to suspect that Partick won't lose.

4pts Arsenal / Preston / Inverness      @      4.48      Scandic
                                                                4.47      Canbet
                                                                4.42      Interwetten

Arsenal v Middlesbrough
Arsenal did lose to Middlesbrough in midweek, but that was Arsenal reserves in the Carling Cup, so that result can be ignored. Arsenal will rest Henry here, but will have the rest of their first-choice team available. Middlesbrough have Southgate and Cooper out for this game, plus Doriva. Also, Ehiogu is doubtful after picking up an injury in midweek. This severely weakens Middlesbrough defensively, so it is easy to see Arsenal scoring a few. Arsenal will also be fresher after resting their top players in midweek. Middlesbrough have a very poor record against Arsenal, which should continue in this game.

Swansea v Preston
Swansea have not been at their best recently, and could struggle against Preston here, who are flying in Division One at the moment. Apart from a defeat against Wigan in their last game, Preston have been superb lately. Preston do have several players who have played at a higher level than Division One, and they really should win this game. Swansea are capable of playing well at home, but it just hasn't been happening for them lately. If Preston play well, they will almost certainly win.

Brechin v Inverness
Inverness have scored 5 past Brechin in two separate games fairly recently. Every time Brechin play Inverness, they are well beaten. Brechin did win against St Mirren last week, but St Mirren are a poor team. Inverness are playing well, and need to win here to keep up their title challenge. Brechin are out of their depth in Scottish Division One after successive promotions, and will lose most of their games this season. Inveress have enough attacking power to win this easily.

0.5pts Arsenal / Birmingham / Portsmouth / Preston / Torquay / Hearts / Inverness / Peterhead / Stranraer @ 28.93 Premierbet
28.80 Totalbet, UK Betting

Summary: The only other bet considered really was Celtic, but this was ruled out due to defensive injuries and Thompson being out also. Of the three trebles taken, hopefully at least 2 should win. It is perfectly possible that all 3 might win. Although there are 9 teams needing to win, some of them should be very comfortable. There will be no bets on the Sunday football games, so these will be the only bets this weekend.

January 31st 2004

8pts Manchester United / Celtic @ 1.39 Premierbet
1.38 Stan James, Paddy Power

Manchester United v Southampton
Manchester United look like winning this game easily. They have a near full strength squad available, missing only Ferdinand and possibly Giggs. Southampton are missing both of their usual central defenders, Michael Svensson and Lundekvam, as well as several other players. Southampton have a terrible record at Old Trafford over the years, and haven't been playing at all well recently. With key players from their team missing this game, it is hard to see them avoiding defeat. An inexperienced defence will find it hard to keep Manchester United at bay. After losing to Wolves, Manchester United will be doubly keen to win this game to keep pace with Arsenal. Despite the low odds, Manchester United are still a good bet.

Celtic v Kilmarnock
Celtic, over the past couple of seasons, have always beaten all of the other SPL teams, excluding Rangers, in every home game. It has been several years since they failed to win at home to Kilmarnock. Celtic are starting to get some of their injured players fit again, although will still be without Thompson for this game. Kilmarnock are on a very poor run of form, losing most of their recent league games. They tend to concede a fair few goals away from home, and it would be a massive surprise if Kilmarnock were to avoid defeat here. Despite the very low odds, Celtic are still a worthwhile bet.

4pts Celtic / Inverness      @      1.77      Interwetten
                                               1.71      Scandic
                                               1.69      Sportingbet

Inverness v St Mirren
Inverness have a superb record against St Mirren, beating them every time they have met this season and last. St Mirren lost their last away game against bottom of the table Brechin, while Inverness are currently playing superbly and scoring a lot of goals. Inverness won easily at Brechin last week. They always tend to be strong at home, while St Mirren have been pretty poor all season. Inverness have a pretty much fully fit squad for this game, so should be able to win.

Summary: Only a couple of quite conservative bets this week. It would be a big surprise if Manchester United or Celtic failed to win, while Inverness should also win. It may seem that these bets are obvious, but no other bets were quite tempting enough to take. We may as well take these bets, for hopefully easy profit. Other bets considered were Bradford, Swindon and Bristol City. Bradford look tempting, but they have a poor record against Gillingham. Blackpool have several players injured and suspended against Swindon, but Swindon are priced just a little too low. Bristol City are on a superb winning run, but Grimsby have a couple of decent players, so the odds on Bristol City weren't quite high enough. All three of these teams do have a good chance, and we wouldn't put anyone off wanting to back them. Please note too, that at the time of writing, Canbet's website was not working, so it may be worth checking their odds before placing any bets. Any bets for Sunday will be sent out on Saturday evening.