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December 3rd 2003
6pts Aston
Villa @ 1.53 Premierbet,
William Hill, Eurobet
Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
It is sometimes dangerous to bet on the Carling Cup, but Aston Villa
have taken this competition seriously this season. In fact, we have
advised bets on them in the previous two rounds, and there is no reason
not to do the same here. Aston Villa played well against Southampton in
the last game, and are difficult to score against. Crystal Palace are
not, and are struggling a little in Division One. Top scorer Johnson is
likely to miss out for them, which won't help their cause. Crystal
Palace don't appear to have the best team spirit, and have tended to
give up in games a few times this season. The difference between these
teams is large, so the odds represent a fair bet. Aston Villa need to
win to keep the fans happy and to try to qualify for Europe.
2pts Aston
Villa / Chelsea / Queen of the South @
3.80 Premierbet, William Hill
3.72 Scandic
Reading v Chelsea
Chelsea are likely to make several changes to their team for this game,
but the players likely to come in are very good. Any players who do play
for Chelsea will be looking to impress to try to gain a regular place in
the team, so their motivation should be high. Reading are short on
strikers, so may struggle to score here, as they have done all season.
Reading don't appear quite as strong as last season, and with Chelsea
having such a strong squad, Reading will find it hard. The odds are a
little low, but against a mid-table Division One team, Chelsea should
win.
Queen of the South v St Mirren
Queen of the South have been strong at home this season, so have a fair
chance of winning this game. St Mirren have been very poor in recent
games, and do have a few players out for this game. Queen of the South
have already won at St Mirren this season. The odds for this game
could've been a little lower, so this represents a good bet.
Summary: It was hard to recommend anything else on the
Carling Cup with so much uncertainty about team line-ups. All of the
other games have too many question marks to advise anything. Betting
just before kick-off when the team line-ups are known seems the best way
to go there. The bets taken are ones where it can be assumed that teams
will play a strong line-up.
December 6th 2003
5pts Bournemouth / Clyde
@
2.26 Tote Bet Xpress
2.20 Skybet, Sportingodds
Bournemouth v Accrington
Bournemouth have been playing well in most games lately, even when they
have not been winning. Accrington are 2 divisions below Bournemouth, in
the Conference. The odds on Bournemouth are a little high here, as they
have been very impressive at home this season, and last season.
Accrington will not make it easy, but playing away from home, they
really should be beaten in this game. Bournemouth have several
impressive home results this season against better teams than Accrington.
Clyde v Raith
Clyde are very strong at home, and have a very good record against Raith
in recent games. Raith have managed a few decent results this season,
but recently have been on a downward trend. They have been conceding too
many goals, and confidence must be low. Clyde always seem to do well at
home, and should be able to win this one certainly. Clyde have beaten
some of the top teams in Scottish Division One lately, so must be
confident against a struggling team like Raith.
4pts Yeovil / Morton
@
2.50 Ladbrokes
2.27 Totalbet, UK Betting
Yeovil v Barnet
Yeovil have been extremely impressive at home this season, and have won
the majority of their games. In recent games they have probably played
as well as they have all season. Barnet are a good Conference team, but
will struggle against a top Division Three team like Yeovil. Barnet do
concede a few goals, which Yeovil should be able to take advantage of.
Yeovil have beaten most Division Three teams at home this season, and
therefore are over-priced against a team a division below them.
Morton v Arbroath
Morton have already beaten Arbroath twice this season, scoring plenty of
goals in the process. Last week's last minute winner should give Morton
a boost. Morton are the best team in Scottish Division Two, while
Arbroath will battle relegation all season. Arbroath have lost their
last 4 away league games, and will need a big improvement to avoid
making it 5 here. Morton haven't done as well at home as they have away,
but that will probably change over the course of the season, and they
should win a higher percentage of home games.
0.5pts Middlesbrough /
Bournemouth / Swansea / Yeovil / Clyde / Morton @
13.61 Ladbrokes
13.49 Canbet
13.23 Paddy Power
Middlesbrough v Portsmouth
Middlesbrough have picked up lately, and have made themselves really
hard to beat. Portsmouth meanwhile have been easy to beat, and have been
conceding too many goals. They been particularly disappointing in
defeats against Southampton and Leicester. Middlesbrough seem to have
overcome their early season problems at home, and if they can manage to
score, should win this game. Portsmouth look to be lacking in
confidence, and several of their older players look a bit past their
best.
Swansea v Stevenage
Swansea have struggled for goals a bit lately, but now have players such
as Trundle returning to full fitness after injury. Stevenage are going
fairly well in the Conference, but have suffered a few defeats away from
home this season. Swansea are not quite playing as well as they were in
the first few games this season, but are improving again. They were very
impressive against Rushden in the last round of the FA Cup, and will be
looking for more of the same here. The odds on Swansea are a little
higher than expected, so they are worth taking.
Summary: Luton and West Brom-West
Ham Under 2.5 goals were the only other bets under serious consideration
this week. The final decision was to take 2 strong-looking doubles and a
small stakes 6-fold. Middlesbrough and Swansea weren't taken for larger
stakes due to slight doubts over their ability to score at the moment.
They are still worth including in a small bet though.
December 9th 2003
2.26pts Chelsea
@ 2.63
Canbet
2.50 Scandic
2.45 Centrebet
1.74pts Besiktas-Chelsea Draw
@
3.40 Ladbrokes
3.25 Sporting Odds, Tote Bet Xpress
Besiktas v Chelsea
This match has been switched to Germany, but Besiktas will still enjoy a
lot of support. Despite this, home advantage will be slightly negated by
the switch, as the surroundings won't be familiar for Besiktas. Chelsea
need to avoid defeat in this game to win the group, and avoid the top
teams in the next round. They did lose the home game with Besiktas, but
missed a lot of chances, and tried playing with 3 central defenders.
Chelsea probably won't make the same mistakes again, and should be able
to get at least the draw they need to win the group. A draw is also
enough for Besiktas to qualify, as long as Lazio don't win. So if Sparta
Prague happen to be winning, both teams could play out a draw. If Lazio
are winning, Besiktas will have to attack, which could leave Chelsea
space to score on the counter attack. It seems unlikely that Chelsea
will lose here, as they know the importance of winning the group, so
will be fully motivated.
4pts Bury-Scunthorpe Over 2
goals @ 1.80
Stan James
Bury v Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe lately have been scoring goals and conceding them at quite a
rate, with the vast majority of their games featuring at least 3 goals
in recent weeks. Another reason why this game should be high-scoring, is
that Bury are planning to make changes to their team. If their team
isn't organised, the game could be more open. Neither team will want
extra time, so an open game is likely here. Most of Bury's home games
this season have had at least 3 goals, including their previous LDV
game. The odds on Over 2 goals are reasonable, and certainly worth
taking here.
Summary: Not really many other bets worth considering for
tonight's football. Any bets for tomorrow's football will be sent out
tonight. There may also be a cricket bet on England v Sri Lanka, which
starts early tomorrow morning. Any bet on this cricket match will be
sent out by 7pm tonight, so please check your e-mail this evening if
possible.
December 13th 2003
5pts QPR / St Johnstone
@
2.89 Canbet, Interwetten, Scandic
QPR v Hartlepool
QPR are the best team in Division Two, and appear to have all of their
best players available. When looking through their players, most are
good enough for Division One. QPR have had very good home results
lately, and should continue in that vein here. Hartlepool are doing
better than expected this season, but have struggled away from home this
season. Against a full-strength QPR team, they will find this game very
hard. The odds on QPR are higher than expected, so that makes them an
excellent bet.
Ayr v St Johnstone
St Johnstone often perform better away from home, where they are given
more space. They are one of the better teams in Scottish Division One,
while Ayr are really struggling. Add to that that Ayr have some injured
players too, meaning that they will have a fair few young players in
their squad for this game. Ayr struggled badly early in the season when
they had injuries, so clearly don't have a strong squad. St Johnstone
are hard to score against, and have all their strikers fit again, so
should be far too strong for Ayr.
3pts West Brom / Inverness /
Stirling @
4.30 Canbet
4.13 Paddy Power
4.01 Sportingbet
West Brom v Crewe
West Brom currently have a bit of a striker injury crisis, but are
playing well. Confidence will be high after a few good wins lately, and
they should expect to win against a team like Crewe, who often struggle
away from home. You can ignore Crewe's win over Crystal Palace, as
Palace are a very poor team at the moment. West Brom are strong
defensively, so should certainly have the edge here. Crewe have a few
players absent or doubtful, which will harm their chances. The odds on
West Brom are just about worthwhile, so should be taken.
Raith v Inverness
Raith have been struggling for form recently, and do have a pretty poor
home record this season. Inverness have a fully-fit squad and are flying
after some good recent results. Inverness also have a superb record
against Raith. With Inverness scoring so many goals at the moment, it is
hard to se Raith keeping them out. Inverness are at quite high odds,
because Raith are traditionally quite decent. Not at the moment though,
so Inverness are worth taking.
Elgin v Stirling Albion
Elgin are really struggling, both home and away. Their home record is as
bad as their away record, while Stirling do as well away from home as at
home. If Stirling were at home, the odds would be much lower for this
game. Elgin have a poor record against Stirling, and also have done
badly against all the good teams in Scottish Division Three this season.
Most of their points have been picked up against the weaker teams. As
Elgin concede so many goals, if Stirling defend well then they will win.
Stirling haven't been brilliant recently, but should still be too strong
for such a weak team.
1pt West Brom / QPR / St
Johnstone / Inverness / Stirling
@ 12.42
Canbet
11.54 Sportingbet
11.11 Paddy Power
Summary: Not really many
other bets were considered for tomorrow. We have taken two main bets,
which need one to win to make a profit. Hopefully both will win, which
is perfectly possible. The big cricket bet advised on Muralitharan to be
top Sri Lankan wicket taker in the series against England is on the
verge on winning. He currently has 15 wickets, with his nearest rival on
7. The 3-match series is currently half-way through the second game.
December 14th 2003 5pts
Arsenal HT/FT
@ 2.00
Canbet
1.83 UK Betting, Totalbet Arsenal
v Blackburn
Arsenal should win this game with ease, against a Blackburn team that
has struggled this season. They have picked up a bit recently, but have
only beaten Everton, Birmingham and Tottenham. Their defence is still
very weak, and they continue to badly miss Damien Duff in their attack.
Blackburn's strength is in midfield, but with Vieira back for Arsenal
now, Arsenal can dominate this. The only player likely to be absent for
Arsenal is Lauren. The massive boost Arsenal will have received from
winning their Champions League group, should see them approach this game
in confident mood. Blackburn were beaten by a weakened Manchester United
at Old Trafford very easily recently, and a similar result looks like
here. Blackburn did win this fixture last season, but only after being
incredibly lucky. If Arsenal don't enjoy some bad luck, they should
start this game quickly and have it wrapped up by half time.
Summary: Not really much else to consider for tomorrow.
Leeds and Aston Villa should have the edge in their games, but there are
too many doubts about both to confidently advise them. Another thing to
note is that the Ian Botham, Golden Sports Personality 1974-83 bet, will
be settled tomorrow evening.
2pts
Ian Botham - BBC Sports Personality 1974-1983
@ 1.73 Blue
Square
BBC
Sports Personality 1974-1983 Golden Sports Personality Decade Winner
This would appear to be a 2-horse race between Botham and Thompson, with
Coe having a small chance. What is in Botham's favour, is that arguably the most memorable British sporting moment, in sports other than
football, occured in this period. The follow-on win for England against
against Australia at Headingley, with Botham starring with bat and ball,
is still talked about today. With Thompson and Coe both being athletes,
an advantage Botham has is that English cricket has had little success
since he played, while there have been many more successful athletes
since 1983. Crucially, both Coe and Thompson were to enjoy great
successes after 1983, especially in the 1984 Olympics. Botham was at his
peak in the period, with Headingley being the major highlight. All of
the other contenders can be written off as they are not so well known
and popular with the public.
Summary: This is a very confident bet, but due to the nature of how it
is decided, small stakes are best. The BBC will be televising Golden
Decade shows each night this week at 7pm British time. Bobby Moore seems
a certain winner 1964-1973, but the odds of 1.20 aren't worth taking. At
this moment in time, we're not exactly sure how the voting will take
place. It may be phone, text, e-mail or a combination of those.
Certainly, if the voting is available online and is free, anyone taking
this bet would be wise to have a vote themselves, and maybe get others
to vote as well, just to try to make sure of winning! Unfortunately, the
price has changed from 2.00 to 1.73, but this bet is still good value
for the reasons outlined. Blue Square are the only bookmaker running
this market.
December 20th 2003 6pts
Berwick / Morton / Airdrie
@ 2.25
Victor Chandler
2.24 Paddy Power
2.22 Scandic
Berwick v Huntly
Berwick are one of the best teams in Scottish Division Two and should
have no problems winning against a mid-table team from the Highland
League. The Highland League is not as strong as previous years, which
was shown by Buckie Thistle's 6-1 defeat in the Scottish Cup First Round
against East of Scotland League team Spartans. Highland League Leaders
Clachnacuddin were also beat 2-0 at home by Stranraer in the Scottish
Cup this season, with really creating any scoring chances. Huntly are of
a similar standard to Buckie Thistle, and have a long journey to make to
Berwick. This should be an easy home win.
Morton v Vale of Leithen
The odds on Morton are very short indeed, but they seem absolute
certainties to win this game. Vale of Leithen are bottom of the East of
Scotland League Premier Division with only 1 win in 11 games this
season. The best team in Scottish Division Two should be able to beat
Vale of Leithen by several goals. Morton are flying, and are a very good
attacking team. There is no way that Morton should fail to win this one,
so they are worth including as part of the bets.
Inverurie v Airdrie
Airdrie have been drawing quite a few games recently, but should find
the going a little easier in this one. Inverurie are near the top of the
Highland League, but that is a level way below Scottish Division Two. A
good marker is Stranraer's 2-0 at Clachnacuddin. Clachnacuddin are
dominating the Highland League, yet were beaten easily at home by one of
the best teams in Scottish Division Three. Airdrie are better than
Stranraer, so should be able to win against a team doing nowhere near as
well as Clachnacuddin, in the Highland League. Most non-league teams
tend to lose when they face league opposition in the Scottish Cup, and
this game should be no different. Airdrie are a useful team, who should
certainly be able to win this game with something to spare. The odds on
Airdrie are generous considering the gulf between the teams.
Summary: Not many other bets in England and Scotland stood
out in a difficult looking fixture list. Any Sunday bets will follow by
Saturday night.
December 21st 2003
10pts Muralitharan - Sri Lanka Top Team Bowler
@ 1.67
Bet365
Sri Lanka v England (Test Cricket Series) [advised 1st December]
The bet here has to be Muralitharan to be top bowler for Sri Lanka in
the series. Sri Lanka should win this series, but can collapse under
pressure, as they did the last time England played here. Without Stewart
and without a good fast bowling line-up, England will struggle. However,
the main reason for not recommending a Sri Lanka series win, is the
weather. The weather ruined the one day series between these teams, and
could do the same to the test matches. If much time is lost, England are
more than capable of getting draws from the matches. Muralitharan
usually bowls around 40% of Sri Lanka's and takes most of the wickets.
The first match will be played on a very spinner-friendly pitch, so
should see him being very successful, regardless of the result of the
match. Sri Lanka will use other spinners to back up Muralitharan, but
the only threat to this bet appears to be Vaas. He is Sri Lanka's second
most successful bowler, but will struggle to match Muralitharan's
wickets. He is likely to bowl far less overs, especially if Sri Lanka
bat first in the matches. Muralitharan has a better strike rate in test
matches than Vaas, so if he is bowling more overs, he is likely to take
far more wickets. None of the other Sri Lankan spinners will bowl as
many overs as Muralitharan, and are nowhere near as good, so none of
these pose any real threat to this bet. Muralitharan has been top wicket
taker in 6 out of Sri Lanka's last 8 series, joint top in one other and
second in the remaining one. This bet appears well over-priced, despite
the price dropping slightly since the market opened.
Summary: This bets needs to be placed before 4:30am British time on
Tuesday morning when the First Test begins. The advised stake is higher
than usual for this bet as confidence is very high. Barring injury, it
is a bet than should win. Football bets for Tuesday will follow later.
December 22nd 2003
5pts Manchester City-Leeds Over 2.5 goals
@ 2.00
Ladbrokes
1.90 Premierbet, Centrebet, Bet365
Manchester City v Leeds
The odds on Over 2.5 goals with Ladbrokes are good, and make it a good
value bet. The chances are more than 50%, as every Leeds away game this
season except one has had at least three goals. Manchester City seem to
have slightly regained their confidence in the last couple of games.
Neither team can defend very well, as was illustrated by Leeds' failure
to hold onto a 2-0 lead against Fulham last week. Manchester City always
attempt to attack, especially at home. Leeds can certainly score goals
as they are playing more as a team now. Manchester City are always
likely to score, and could well score a few here if they start well.
Looking at last season's statistics, Manchester City were involved in
more games with Over 2.5 goals at home, while Leeds were involved in
more Over 2.5 goals games away from home. Neither team is likely to
settle for a draw, as both will fancy their chances of winning, so it
should be an open game.
Summary: This is not a bet certain to win, but the odds at
Ladbrokes make it worthwhile. The odds may drop before tomorrow, so it
may be wise to place this bet tonight. Also, anyone taking the bet
advised on December 1st on Muralitharan to be top Sri Lankan
wicket-taker in the test series against England, has now won the bet, as
the series finished today. Muralitharan finished with 26 wickets, with
his nearest rival taking 13.
December 26th 2003
2pts Manchester City / Mansfield-Rochdale Over 2
goals @
5.35 Bet365
5.33 Stan James
4.72 Gamebookers
2pts Birmingham-Manchester City Draw / Mansfield-Rochdale Over 2
goals @
5.61 Bet365
5.28 Gamebookers
5.00 Stan James
Birmingham v Manchester City
Despite Manchester City's recent poor results, they often have played
well. They dominated against Leeds on Monday, but missed chances and
gifted Leeds a goal. Manchester City will regain their form sooner or
later, and have a good chance to do so here. Birmingham have been
struggling a bit, apart from their win against 9-man Leicester.
Birmingham have not got a good home record this season, and have looked
vulnerable defensively in recent weeks. The odds on Manchester City here
are far higher than they should be, so it is worth taking them to win
and to draw. If they can cut out the bad defensive errors, they have a
very good chance of winning.
Mansfield v Rochdale
Mansfield have featured in many high-scoring games this season,
especially at home. It is very rare for one of their home games to have
less than 3 goals. Rochdale are on a run of away games with 3 or more
goals in them. Last season, Rochdale had the majority of their away
games finish with at least 3 goals. Also, Rochdale have a couple of
regular defenders injured for this game. Mansfield could easily score 3
on their own here, and certainly there is a very good chance of at least
3 goals in the game. The odds aren't fantastic, but the chance of
winning this bet is greater than the odds suggest.
5pts Arsenal / Manchester United / Yeovil
@ 2.37
Canbet
2.30 Centrebet, Eurobet
Arsenal v Wolves
A mostly reserve Arsenal team recently beat Wolves 5-1 in the Carling
Cup, and there is no reason to suspect that a full-strength Arsenal team
will not win by a similar score line here. Wolves just have not been able
to stop other teams scoring, and conceded 5 at Tottenham and 3 at Aston
Villa since the Carling Cup defeat. They will have to defend well here,
but their slow, lumbering central defenders will not be able to cope
with Arsenal's quick attacking play. Arsenal will know that they can't
afford to drop points at home against the worst team in the league, and
it is very hard to see them doing so. The odds are very low, but still
worth taking.
Manchester United v Everton
Everton have an abysmal record against Manchester United, and that is
set to continue here. Everton have won against Portsmouth and Leicester
recently, but that is more down to those teams being poor, than any real
good play from Everton. Everton are a team full of average players, with
3 or 4 good ones. Everton have struggled to score regularly this season,
and have been conceding goals far more regularly than last season. With
a couple of key defenders injured, Everton won't be able to stop
Manchester United. Manchester United have won several home games in a
row now.
Summary: Other bets considered were Over 2.5 goals on
Portsmouth v Tottenham and Oxford to win, but sufficient doubt existed
about both of those. Any Scottish bets for Saturday will be sent out
late on Friday evening.
December 28h 2003
6pts Bristol City / Plymouth
@ 2.75
Canbet
2.66 Gamebookers
2.61 Scandic
Bristol City v Bournemouth
Bournemouth have started to slide down the table recently, while Bristol
City move in the opposit direction. Bournemouth haven't played well
since the FA Cup defeat against Accrington, and will be missing a few
players for this game. Bristol City have started to perform better, and
look a bit more like one of the pre-season promotion favourites now.
They are always strong at home, and should be able to win this one at
generous odds, against a team who were a division below them last
season. Bournemouth over-achieved at the start of the season, so will do
well to avoid defeat here.
Plymouth v Brentford
After a slight dip in form, Plymouth are on another good run. This bet
has more to do with Brentford's weaknesses though. In recent games, they
have not just lost, but mostly been battered for much of the games.
Teams are having many shots and goal attempts against Brentford, so
Plymouth should be able to score a few here. Both teams will be missing
a couple of first-choice players, but Plymouth should certainly have the
edge against a team playing poorly at the moment.
6pts QPR / Huddersfield
@ 2.88 Stan James
2.79 Canbet
2.76 Centrebet
QPR v Colchester
QPR are the best team in Division Two, and have a superb home record.
They do struggle a bit away from home sometimes, but could easily have
won every home game this season. QPR rarely concede goals at home, and
have pretty much all of their players fit for this game. Colchester are
not a bad team, but are probably doing a little bit better than they
should be. They are very beatable away from home, especially when up
against the better teams. QPR will be very eager to win to maintain
their promotion push, and it is hard to see them not doing so.
Huddersfield v Bury
Bury are on a terrible run at the moment, and are showing no signs of
pulling out of it. Huddersfield can be a little up and down, but
normally play well at home. They have some good attacking players, so if
Bury are lacking confidence, they should be able to take advantage. Bury
look to be defending poorly at the moment, and even managed to lose at
home to Carlisle in their last game, despite taking the lead. The
players may not be fully committed to Bury, as their manager was sacked
in controversial circumstances recently. The odds on a home win seem
good enough to take here.
0.6pts Bristol City / Plymouth / QPR / Huddersfield /
Charlton @
23.79 Canbet
21.55 Stan James
21.15 Gamebookers
0.4pts Bristol City / Plymouth / QPR / Huddersfield / Tottenham-Charlton
Draw @
24.94 Canbet
22.98 Stan James
22.91 Gamebookers
Tottenham v Charlton
Tottenham have been struggling badly lately, and lost to a Portsmouth
team, in their last game, who were on a very poor run. Tottenham will
also be missing one of their best players here, Carr, who is suspended.
They have a few injuries too, and could find this game very hard.
Charlton's morale will be very high after the win over Chelsea, which
followed a very good performance against Newcastle. Charlton will have
most of their first-choice players available for this game, and should
at the very least be able to get a draw.
Summary: Other bets considered were Middlesbrough and
Walsall. Middlesbrough weren't taken due to Manchester United's decision
to save several key players for this game by resting them on Boxing Day.
Walsall could win against Reading, but the odds weren't quite high
enough. These will be the last football bets until January 3rd.
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